Bitcoin Valuation Hits $2.9 Million Scenario as VanEck Maps Global Utility Shift

Bitcoin could surge to $2.9 million by 2050 as it evolves into a global settlement currency, according to asset manager VanEck.

VanEck’s projection assumes a 15% compounded annual growth rate, with Bitcoin settling 5–10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic transactions by 2050. The outlook was detailed by Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, highlighting Bitcoin’s gradual shift from speculation toward monetary utility within broader global financial systems worldwide today.

The recent post by Cointelegraph cites VanEck’s assessment of Bitcoin’s expanding role within the global financial system. The firm believes BTC could increasingly function as a neutral settlement infrastructure, especially where trust in traditional currencies weakens or geopolitical frictions intensify across multiple regions globally.

Bitcoin Offers Protection Amid Inflation Concerns

VanEck underlines the importance of the fixed supply of 21 million Bitcoin as the basis of the long-term value proposition. With inflation that has been here to stay, increasing sovereign debts and currency debasement issues, scarcity could amplify demand as institutions and governments seek alternative stores of value to protect purchasing power over extended periods ahead.

Besides scarcity, the firm expects the institutional and sovereign uptake to increase with improved regulation clarity and developing custody, settlement, and security infrastructures. 

Even modest central bank allocations could have an impact on material demand dynamics, boosting the credibility of Bitcoin as a reserve-like asset in diversified portfolios around the world in investment horizons that may extend well into the middle of the century globally.

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Global Trade and Scenario Outlook

Sigel​‍​‌‍​‍‌ and Bush estimate that central banks will hold 2.5% of their assets in BTC, at the same time, the network would represent 1.66% of global financial assets at a $2.9 million price. VanEck presents this as its base case, along with clearly defined bear and bull scenarios that point to different rates of growth in the adoption of the network.

Source: VanEck

BTC is already a medium of exchange in some sanctioned economies such as Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, its adoption in G7 countries is still limited. Data from SWIFT shows that the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen complete the top five at 3.2% and 3.7%, respectively. 

Source: SWIFT

Bitcoin would only be able to challenge the major currencies if it got as much as 5–10% of international settlement flows under the assumptions in VanEck’s ​‍​‌‍​‍‌model.

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