Households in the euro area kept inflation views steady in the latest ECB consumer expectations release, while turning more cautious on growth and housing.
Headline results from the November 2025 survey
On 8 January 2026, the European Central Bank published the November 2025 results of its Consumer Expectations Survey. Compared with October 2025, median consumer perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months were unchanged, as were median expectations for inflation over the next year, three years ahead and five years ahead.
Moreover, expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained stable, while expected spending growth over the same horizon decreased. At the same time, expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became more negative. However, the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time declined, pointing to a still resilient labour market.
Expectations for growth in home prices over the next year also weakened in November. In addition, expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time edged lower, suggesting some easing in perceived future borrowing costs for housing.
Stable inflation perceptions and expectations
In November, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 3.1% for the tenth consecutive month. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also stayed at 2.8%, the same level as in October 2025. Moreover, expectations for inflation three years ahead were steady at 2.5%, while expectations for five years ahead held at 2.2%.
Uncertainty around inflation expectations over the next year also remained unchanged in November. Respondents in lower income quintiles continued to report slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than higher-income respondents, extending a pattern seen since 2023. However, the broader evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations still appeared closely aligned across income groups, indicating limited divergence in price views.
Younger respondents aged 18-34 continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older cohorts aged 35-54 and 55-70. That said, the overall structure of expectations by age group remained consistent with previous survey waves, pointing to persistent demographic differences in price assessments.
Income stability and softer spending plans
Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months were unchanged at 1.2% in November. This stability in nominal income expectations suggests households do not foresee a marked acceleration in earnings. However, perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.0%, up from 4.9% in October, indicating that households felt their outlays had risen slightly faster than before.
Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months decreased to 3.4%, from 3.5% in October. Moreover, respondents in the lowest three income quintiles reported slightly higher expected spending growth than those in the highest two quintiles. This pattern hints at some ongoing consumption pressure among lower-income households, even as overall spending plans become more cautious.
Weaker growth outlook but lower unemployment expectations
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative in November. The average expected growth rate fell to -1.3%, from -1.1% in October, signalling that households increasingly foresee contraction in the euro area economy. However, expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead improved modestly, with the expected rate falling to 10.9% in November, from 11.0% in October.
As in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest unemployment rate in 12 months’ time, at 13.4%, while higher-income households anticipated the lowest rate, at 9.4%. Moreover, consumers overall expected the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than their perceived current unemployment rate of 10.4%. This combination of more negative growth views and stable labour market expectations suggests that the ECB consumer expectations survey still points to a broadly steady jobs outlook.
Cooling house price and mortgage rate expectations
Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, down from 3.5% in October. Home price growth expectations remained broadly aligned across income categories, at 3.5% for the lowest income quintile and 3.2% for the highest quintile. However, the marginal decline highlights slightly less optimistic views on future housing valuations.
Expectations for mortgage interest rates over the next year also eased. The expected mortgage rate in 12 months’ time declined to 4.6% in November, from 4.7% in October. As in earlier months, lower-income households anticipated the highest future mortgage rates, at 5.3%, while higher-income households expected the lowest rates, at 4.1%. Moreover, this gap underscores persistent differences in perceived borrowing conditions across income groups.
The net percentage of households reporting a tightening of access to credit over the previous 12 months, relative to those reporting an easing, declined compared with October. That said, the net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months remained unchanged, signalling that consumers do not yet see a clear improvement in future credit availability.
Upcoming release of December 2025 survey data
The European Central Bank plans to publish the December 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey results on 30 January 2026. Moreover, this upcoming release will offer a first view of how households entered 2026 in terms of inflation perceptions, growth expectations and housing market sentiment across the euro area.
In summary, the November 2025 survey shows steady inflation expectations, cautious spending and a weaker growth outlook, offset by resilient labour market views and slightly lower expected mortgage rates.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/01/08/ecb-consumer-expectations-nov-2025/
