Bitcoin Likely to Stall in Q1 2026 as Capital Flows Dry Up, CryptoQuant Says

CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin to trade sideways through the first quarter of 2026, warning that capital inflows into the asset have slowed as investors rotate back into traditional markets.

Key Takeaways:

• CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin to trade sideways in early 2026 as capital flows slow.
• Weak sentiment and rotation into stocks and precious metals are weighing on short-term momentum.
• Strong ETF inflows suggest institutional interest remains despite the muted price outlook.

“Capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up,” Ju said Wednesday, arguing that money has recently shifted toward equities and precious metals as gold and silver prices surge.

While Bitcoin has often shown strong momentum early in the year, Ju said the current setup points to a period of subdued price action rather than a sharp rally or sell-off.

Bitcoin Slips From Weekly High as CryptoQuant CEO Sees Sideways Trading

At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $90,900, down more than 2% on the day and off its weekly high near $94,400, according to CoinMarketCap.

Ju said a deep drawdown appears unlikely, adding that the market is more likely headed for “boring sideways” trading over the coming months.

A flat first quarter would run counter to historical patterns. January has typically delivered modest gains for Bitcoin, averaging a 3.8% return since 2013.

February and March have been stronger, with average gains of 13.1% and 12.2%, respectively, according to data from CoinGlass.

Ju’s cautious outlook follows recent warnings from veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity macro research director Jurrien Timmer, both of whom have floated scenarios where Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000–$65,000 range this year.

Market sentiment has also remained weak. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has hovered between “fear” and “extreme fear” since early November, registering a score of 28 on Thursday, signaling continued caution among traders.

However, not all indicators are pointing lower. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds opened 2026 with renewed inflows, recording $925.3 million in net additions over the first three trading days of the year, according to Farside Investors.

The flows suggest that institutional interest remains intact despite short-term hesitation.

Bitcoin Bulls Stay Confident as Draper and Bitwise Eye New Highs in 2026

Optimism among long-term bulls also remains strong. Venture capitalist Tim Draper reiterated this week that 2026 would be a breakout year, repeating his long-standing $250,000 Bitcoin price target.

Meanwhile, Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen has argued that Bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle in 2026 and push to new highs.

Meanwhile, Abra CEO Bill Barhydt believes Bitcoin could benefit in 2026 as easing monetary policy injects fresh liquidity into global markets, reviving risk appetite after a prolonged period of tight financial conditions.

Barhydt said the US central bank is already laying the groundwork for looser policy.