Terrill Dicki
Jan 07, 2026 04:48
Ripple surges past $2.25 resistance amid $48M ETF inflows, but technical divergence warns of potential reversal ahead of critical $2.42 test.
XRP has shattered through a resistance level that held firm for three weeks, climbing 30% in a breakout that mirrors the explosive moves seen during the 2017 altcoin rally. The surge past $2.25 comes as institutional money floods into XRP exchange-traded funds at triple the December pace, signaling a potential shift in crypto’s leadership dynamics.
Trading at $2.26 after a modest 5.14% pullback from Monday’s highs, XRP finds itself in familiar territory—caught between momentum-driven bulls and profit-taking pressure. The digital asset has outpaced Bitcoin’s gains by more than three-to-one over the past week, with the XRP-BTC ratio climbing 17% while the flagship cryptocurrency managed just 5%.
Institutional Capital Drives the Rally
The numbers tell a compelling story about changing sentiment. XRP ETFs pulled in $48 million on January 6 alone, according to fund flow data, compared to December’s daily average of $16 million. This represents a 200% acceleration in institutional adoption, suggesting large-scale investors are positioning for extended gains.
“We’re seeing classic altseason behavior,” notes veteran crypto trader Michael van de Poppe. “XRP’s relative strength against Bitcoin is the clearest signal yet that institutional capital is rotating into alternative assets.”
Technical indicators support the bullish narrative. The MACD histogram shows a positive 0.0593 reading, indicating strengthening momentum, while the asset trades at 0.98 on the Bollinger Bands—just shy of the upper boundary that typically signals overbought conditions.
Technical Picture Points Higher, With Caveats
Binance spot data reveals XRP trading well above its key moving averages, with the 7-day simple moving average at $2.13 providing immediate support. The 20-day SMA sits at $1.97, offering a deeper backstop should profit-taking accelerate.
The RSI reading of 66.61 keeps XRP in neutral territory, avoiding the extreme readings that often precede sharp reversals. However, the Stochastic oscillator shows a concerning divergence, with the %K line at 74.71 beginning to curl lower from overbought levels—a pattern that preceded significant corrections in both August and November 2025.
Resistance clusters around $2.42, a level that coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from XRP’s December decline. Breaking above this threshold would target the psychological $2.50 level and potentially the 52-week high of $3.55 established last spring.
The Contrarian Case
Not everyone shares the bullish enthusiasm. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that XRP’s recent outperformance may be unsustainable given macroeconomic headwinds. “We’re seeing similar patterns to early 2022, where altcoins rallied hard before Bitcoin’s dominance reasserted itself,” Cowen explains. “The correlation trade works both ways.”
The concern centers on XRP’s position near its 200-day moving average at $2.57. This level has acted as significant resistance throughout 2025, and approaching it during a period of heightened volatility could trigger algorithmic selling from institutional players.
The Trade Setup
For bulls, the setup remains attractive despite recent gains. A break above $2.42 resistance with volume would target $2.65 within two weeks, offering a risk-reward ratio of roughly 2:1 when using $2.20 as a stop-loss.
Bears, however, should watch for failure at the current $2.42 resistance test. A rejection here, combined with declining volume, could trigger a retreat to the $1.97 support zone—a move that would invalidate the altseason thesis and potentially signal broader market weakness.
The daily ATR of $0.10 suggests traders should expect significant price swings in either direction, making position sizing crucial for both directional plays.
XRP’s breakout represents more than just another crypto pump—it reflects a fundamental shift in market structure as institutional capital seeks alternatives to Bitcoin’s grinding consolidation. The asset trades at a critical juncture where technical momentum meets resistance-level reality. Success above $2.42 within the next week would confirm the altseason narrative and likely trigger additional institutional flows. Failure, however, could mark the end of XRP’s remarkable run and signal that Bitcoin’s dominance remains intact.
Image source: Shutterstock
Source: https://blockchain.news/news/20260107-prediction-xrp-breaks-key-resistance-as-altcoin-season
