The Week Ahead: Jobs Report and Venezuela Developments Take Center Stage in Markets

TLDR

• December jobs report releases Friday, January 9, with expectations of 55,000 new jobs added after November’s 64,000 gain
• Federal Reserve officials remain divided on interest rate cuts, closely monitoring labor market data for signals of weakness
• U.S. military action in Venezuela over the weekend adds geopolitical uncertainty, with potential oil market volatility ahead
• S&P 500 finished 2025 with 16% gain but ended December in monthly loss, now trading near record highs seeking direction
• Fourth-quarter earnings season begins with major banks reporting week of January 13, following delayed economic data releases

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Markets enter the first full trading week of 2026 with fresh uncertainty following weekend developments in Venezuela. The U.S. launched a military strike Saturday and extracted President Nicolás Maduro to face criminal charges. President Donald Trump stated the U.S. would “run” Venezuela until an orderly transition occurs.

The exact nature of U.S. involvement in the oil-rich nation remains unclear. Investors are watching for more details from the Trump administration. The oil market could see increased volatility in coming days.

The December jobs report arrives Friday as the most closely watched economic release of the week. Economists expect 55,000 new jobs were added in December. November saw 64,000 jobs added with unemployment at 4.6%, a four-year high.

Federal Reserve officials have indicated a weakening labor market could trigger more interest rate cuts this year. Minutes from the December Fed meeting showed officials divided on the interest rate path. They plan to monitor upcoming labor market data closely.

The current Fed benchmark rate sits at 3.5% to 3.75%. Fed funds futures show little chance of a cut at the late January meeting. Markets price in nearly 50% probability of a quarter-point reduction in March.

Economic Data Returns After Shutdown

Several reports delayed by last year’s 43-day government shutdown will be released this week. October data on manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders will be published. Housing starts data for September and October will also come out.

Source: Forex Factory

The third-quarter report on U.S. productivity and costs releases Thursday. Other reports include preliminary January consumer sentiment and purchasing manager index data for manufacturing and services sectors. These releases return to normal schedules after the government shutdown disrupted reporting.

The S&P 500 finished 2025 with a 16% gain, marking three consecutive years of double-digit percentage increases. The index fell into a monthly loss for December. It currently trades near record highs but remains around the same level as late October.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

Corporate Earnings Provide Economic Insights

Applied Digital reports Wednesday, giving investors a look at AI infrastructure spending. The data center operator’s shares have risen as AI spending stays strong. Investors will watch for signals that demand continues.

TD Synnex’s earnings will offer insight into broader tech spending patterns. The IT services provider reports Thursday alongside several other companies.

Constellation Brands releases results Wednesday. The Corona beer maker previously warned about slowing beer sales and tariff pressures. Tilray Brands reports Thursday and may discuss Trump’s move to reclassify cannabis as less dangerous.

Albertsons Companies, Cal-Maine Foods and Simply Good Foods report this week. These grocery and food company earnings will show consumer spending patterns on food products. Cal-Maine produces chicken eggs while Simply Good Foods owns the Atkins brand.

Other economic data this week includes ISM manufacturing index on Monday. ADP employment data releases Wednesday along with November job openings figures. Weekly unemployment insurance claims come out Thursday.

JPMorgan and other major banks begin reporting fourth-quarter earnings on January 13. Overall S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have climbed 13% in 2025. Analysts project another 15.5% rise in 2026.

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