Bitcoin’s Critical Setup Since 2022, $103,000 Relief Rally Incoming?

Bitcoin is starting the day around $90,197 with a 1.75% daily gain as the buying pressure remained unchanged. Bitcoin retained market dominance of 58.71% with the leading cryptocurrency registering a 24-hour trading volume of $64.82 billion and a market capitalization of 1.80 trillion. The price action indicates that Bitcoin is still strong following its recent volatility and that it will make a pause before making the next big move.

Source: CoinGecko

Bitcoin Faces Potential Rebound Toward $103K

Market discussion was increased due to Ali Marteniz pointing out a historical pattern at the beginning of 2022. During this period, Bitcoin fell below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), and subsequently retested as a resistance after which it dropped at a steep decline. The analyst says that another structure of this nature is emerging.

If this setup plays out, Bitcoin may initially rebound to between $103,000 and then there is the danger of another downward pullback to the $42,000 level.

Also Read | Bitcoin Price Holds Near $89,000 as $90,000 Liquidity Signals Incoming Move

Rejection May Signal Renewed Uptrend Start

Looking at Bitcoin’s year-end 2025 outlook, the asset is at the moment consolidating to a range of between $80,000 and $95,000. This lateral movement implies that the market is lying in wait, awaiting a definite macro trigger.

The potential success of the data on the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) might be one of the reasons, as this might reinforce the US Dollar Index (DXY). Increased dollar pressure frequently can force Bitcoin in the short run, which leaves it open to a recession in the $67,000-$64,000 zone.

Source: TradingView

It is the lower zone that has a high purchasing interest and strong liquidity in the past price movement. Analysts view it as a potential basis for a greater recovery phase.

A revisit to this region by Bitcoin, in which it demonstrates a distinct rejection, can be the beginning of a new positive cycle. On the upside, breaking the old annual high at around $125,000 will move the long-term structure towards the bulls, and longer-term targets would be reached.

Strategically, one of the entry points of a major zone is near $67000, which is closely monitored by the long-term market players. A protective stop loss of less than $59,000 would be used to deal with the downside risk in the event of sudden volatility.

In case the reversal scenario plays out as it is expected, the major take-profit goal will be price expansion with $135,000.

Also Read | Bitcoin (BTC) Crash Warning: 55% Brutal Drop Ahead