Bitcoin Selling Pressure Cools as Long-Term Holders Pause, Charts Hint at 2026 Setup

Long term Bitcoin holders appear to have stopped net selling for the first time since July 2025, according to CryptoQuant data shared by Merlijn The Trader. At the same time, a separate BTC USDT chart comparison circulating on X argues Bitcoin now trades in a consolidation zone that resembles the late 2021 structure before the next leg higher.

Long term Bitcoin holders pause selling after months of distribution

Long term Bitcoin holders appear to have eased selling pressure for the first time since July 2025, based on a CryptoQuant chart shared on X by Merlijn The Trader. The chart tracks a 30 day sum of long term holder supply change, alongside Bitcoin’s price and the long term holder supply line. After months of mostly red bars, the latest readings move closer to neutral, which signals less net distribution than earlier in the period.

Long term holder supply change 30 day sum. Source: CryptoQuant,Merlijn The Trader

The histogram shows two clear regimes across 2025. First, green bars dominated into late June and early July, which points to net growth in long term holder supply during that stretch. Then, the chart flips into persistent red bars from mid July onward, indicating sustained net reductions as older coins moved out of long term holder status, sold, or transferred.

Meanwhile, the long term holder supply line trends lower through the second half of the year, matching the extended red phase. At the same time, Bitcoin’s price line swings through several peaks and pullbacks, including a sharp drop around late November. Even so, the selling signal in the long term holder metric looks to be fading near year end as the red bars shrink.

That shift matters because long term holder behavior often acts as a supply side filter. When long term holders sell, they add inventory to the market and can cap rebounds. However, when they slow distribution, the market can absorb fewer coins from that cohort, so price becomes more sensitive to changes in demand from spot buyers and derivatives positioning. Still, this metric alone does not confirm direction, since macro moves, liquidity, and short term holder activity can override the signal in the near term.

Bitcoin chart highlights late 2021 style consolidation

A Bitcoin price chart shared on X compares the 2024–2026 BTC USDT structure with the 2020–2022 cycle, focusing on a sideways phase near a key horizontal level. The post came from Vivek Sen, who argued the setup supports a move toward $280,000.

Bitcoin USDT cycle comparison chart 2024–2026 and 2020–2022. Source: Vivek Sen 

In the 2024–2026 panel, Bitcoin climbs, then trades in a tight range around the marked support line, with the chart labeling the consolidation area as November 2025. The earlier part of the move shows a downtrend break and recovery into the current range, which frames the market as holding above a reclaimed level rather than extending in a straight line.

In the 2020–2022 panel, the chart marks a similar pause around November 2021 after an advance, followed by a strong continuation higher. The comparison implies the market can spend time building a base near prior resistance before the next leg.

The chart also includes a dashed path projecting higher into 2026. However, it provides no timing signals or triggers beyond the idea that price needs to hold the highlighted zone. As a result, the takeaway is structural: Bitcoin sits in consolidation near support, and the bullish projection depends on that base staying intact while demand returns.