The 2025 cycle has introduced some notable market divergences.
Historically, Bitcoin [BTC] has seen strong rallies after each halving, with the first four post-halving cycles driven by supply scarcity and demand imbalance. However, 2025 broke that trend, with BTC closing the year down 6%.
A similar divergence is showing up in altcoins. TOTAL3 (market cap ex- BTC and ETH) has printed its fourth straight red year versus Bitcoin, effectively capping an “altcoin season” that’s been fading for four years.
Source: TradingView (TOTAL3/BTC)
That divergence naturally points towards BTC’s growing market influence.
Technically, this isn’t a stretch. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has put in four consecutive uptrends, climbing from roughly 40% in 2022 to above 60% in 2025. That’s a solid 100% gain in market cap, roughly $900 billion added.
Notably, over the same period, total market cap grew to $1.11 trillion, meaning nearly 80% of that new capital landed in BTC, highlighting its growing influence. In this context, is an altseason really a thing of the past?
The 2021 rally in retrospect – Key altcoin market signals
Looking back, the 2021 cycle was a textbook altcoin season.
On the 12-month chart, BTC’s market cap closed the year up 64%, breaking through the historic $1 trillion-milestone. And yet, TOTAL3 (market cap ex-BTC and ETH) completely outpaced it, rallying a staggering 541%.
The result? The Altcoin Season Index peaked, signaling a full-blown altseason, with capital clearly rotating into the broader alt market. Since then, however, BTC has taken control. The question is – What really changed?
Source: TradingView (TOTAL3)
The answer is simple – Altcoin funding rates have spiked.
Simply out, leveraged longs are overcrowded, and while that might sound bullish, it’s actually trapped altcoins in a volatile loop. Even a small sideways move can trigger a cascade of liquidations.
Add rising BTC.D, and alts have become highly vulnerable to sharp swings. In this context, the growing divergence between Bitcoin and alts isn’t a fluke. Instead, it shows why 2021 was probably the last real “altcoin season.”
Final Thoughts
- Altcoin funding rates have spiked, creating overcrowded longs that trap altcoins in a volatile loop.
- Rising Bitcoin dominance has funneled capital towards BTC, making alts vulnerable and explaining why 2021 was likely the last true “altcoin season.”
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/4-years-of-bitcoin-winning-heres-why-2021-was-the-last-alt-season/
