Bitcoin started 2026 stuck near $88,000, extending weeks of sideways trading. While price action looks stagnant, on-chain data suggests the market may be quietly shifting beneath the surface.
Three indicators from CryptoQuant point to easing sell pressure, even as macro uncertainty continues to cap upside momentum.
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Long-Term Holders Show Signs of Accumulation
Bitcoin’s price has struggled to reclaim key resistance after a sharp pullback in late 2025. The lack of follow-through buying has kept sentiment fragile, with traders waiting for confirmation that the correction has run its course.
The first signal comes from long-term holder (LTH) supply data. After months of negative readings, the 30-day net change in LTH supply has turned positive by roughly 10,700 BTC.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder’s Supply. Source: X/DarkfostThis shift suggests that long-term investors are no longer distributing coins at scale.
Instead, supply is gradually moving back into stronger hands, a pattern often seen during consolidation phases rather than market tops.
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LTH SOPR Signals Balance, not Capitulation
A second chart tracks the long-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR). This metric shows whether long-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss.
Currently, LTH SOPR is hovering around the neutral 1.0 level. That indicates long-term holders are not capitulating or rushing to exit at losses.
Historically, this behavior aligns with markets finding equilibrium after a correction, rather than entering a deeper breakdown.
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The third indicator looks at Bitcoin exchange netflows. Recent data shows continued net outflows, with more BTC leaving exchanges than entering them.
This trend reduces immediate sell-side supply on spot markets.
However, the lack of a price rebound suggests demand remains cautious, likely constrained by tighter liquidity and delayed expectations for US rate cuts.
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Bitcoin Exchange Netflow. Source: X/CryptoQuantWill Bitcoin Price Recover in January?
Taken together, the charts paint a mixed but improving picture. Supply-side pressure appears to be easing, and long-term holders remain confident.
Still, price remains range-bound due to weak demand and macro headwinds. A rapid move to $100,000 in January would likely require a fresh catalyst.
Without it, Bitcoin may continue consolidating, building a base that could support a stronger recovery later in 2026 rather than an immediate breakout.
Source: https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-recovery-january-2026-100k-probability/
