Grayscale specifically pointed to rising concerns over fiat debasement, stronger institutional demand, and a more supportive US regulatory environment as the basis for its prediction. The asset manager also expects 2026 to mark the end of Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle as regulation, stablecoin growth, tokenization, and DeFi adoption become more important drivers of the market.
Grayscale Sees Bitcoin Reaching New Highs
Grayscale believes the cryptocurrency market is entering a renewed growth phase that could push Bitcoin to a fresh all-time high in the first half of 2026, driven by rising macroeconomic demand and a more supportive regulatory environment in the United States. The outlook was shared in the asset manager’s 2026 forecast report that was published on Monday.
According to Grayscale, Bitcoin’s next major move higher will be fueled by concern over fiat currency debasement as governments grapple with mounting public debt and its long-term inflationary consequences. The firm argues that as these risks intensify, investors will allocate capital toward alternative stores of value, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Some key takeaways from Grayscale’s report
In this context, Grayscale also expects 2026 to mark the end of the long-debated Bitcoin four-year cycle theory, which means that structural demand and institutional participation are now more important drivers than historical halving-based patterns.
Regulatory developments are another central pillar of Grayscale’s bullish thesis. The firm said the US regulatory stance toward crypto shifted meaningfully over the past several years, moving from enforcement-heavy actions toward clearer guidance and collaboration with the industry.
It specifically mentioned the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products, the dismissal of several high-profile enforcement cases, and the passage of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins as milestones that helped legitimize crypto in traditional finance. Looking ahead, Grayscale expects bipartisan crypto market structure legislation to be passed in 2026, which it believes will further entrench blockchain-based finance in US capital markets and encourage sustained institutional investment.
Beyond price action, Grayscale shared ten major investment themes it expects to define the crypto landscape in 2026. Central to these is the expansion of stablecoins, supported by regulatory clarity under the GENIUS Act. The firm anticipates stablecoins becoming deeply embedded in financial infrastructure, including cross-border payments, derivatives collateral, corporate balance sheets, and consumer payments as an alternative to credit cards.
Asset tokenization is also expected to reach a critical inflection point, while decentralized finance is projected to see eleven more growth, particularly in lending markets, alongside staking becoming a default strategy for investors seeking yield.
At the same time, Grayscale downplayed two narratives that have attracted a lot of attention but are unlikely to materially impact markets in the near term. The firm said that while quantum computing is an area of ongoing research and long-term risk management, it does not expect it to influence crypto valuations in 2026. Similarly, despite increased media focus on digital asset treasuries, Grayscale does not see them as a major swing factor for market performance next year.
Strategy Buys $980 Million in Bitcoin
Strategy also seems confident in Bitcoin as it once again added to its holdings. The company shared on Monday that it bought 10,645 Bitcoin for approximately $980.3 million, paying an average price of $92,098 per coin. The latest acquisition brings Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 671,268 BTC.
The purchase happened as Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its recent highs, prompting many investors to turn cautious. Despite the broader downturn, Strategy continues to lean into its long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy. The company’s proprietary Bitcoin yield metric, which tracks the percentage change in its Bitcoin holdings relative to its fully diluted share count, currently stands at 24.9%. Strategy says this reflects the effectiveness of its approach even as market conditions weakened.
Strategy accelerated its buying pace over the past few weeks after a relatively subdued period earlier in the year. In early December alone, the company bought more than 10,600 Bitcoin. Overall, the firm steadily built its Bitcoin position over several years by allocating operating cash to the asset and, more recently, by tapping capital markets through equity issuance and debt offerings to fund additional purchases.
Strategy Bitcoin purchases (Source: SaylorTracker)
The company also took steps to shore up its financial position and reassure investors. Strategy announced the establishment of a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve that is designed to cover future dividend obligations during periods of market stress. The reserve is expected to fund at least 12 months of dividend payments, with plans to extend coverage to two years. Management said the move is intended to provide better financial flexibility and stability. Chief executive Phong Le said the decision was also aimed at countering “fear, uncertainty and doubt” that tends to emerge during sharp market swings.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/13134/grayscale-sees-bitcoin-hitting-new-highs-by-early-2026
