Polymarket Has Zohran Mamdani Locked in To Win NY Election

Zohran Mamdani crushed Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary last week, and now, according to Polymarket, he’s the frontrunner for mayor of New York.  At 33, the Democratic socialist is shaping what could be the city’s sharpest political shift in decades, running on a platform that “billionaires shouldn’t exist.”

Since then, there has been a full-blown internet war, with armchair economists, Twitter Marxists, and crypto libertarians all giving their take. The question at the center is: Should anyone really have a billion dollars?

(X)

How Would You Ensure No Billionaires Exist, Though?

Look at it this way:

The difference is absurd; it’s an obscene amount of money.

That’s at least the logic of the Mamdani supporters online, and they do have a point: New York’s wealth inequality is the worst in the nation.

(NYT)

According to Mamdani and NY Senator Alexander Ocasio-Cortez, billionaires should be taxed accordingly. They should take enough wealth and use it for the people.

To paraphrase their movement, taxing billionaires to the point that they remain millionaires is the equivalent of shaving off excess frosting on a cake.

However, the counterargument coming from AI Czar David Sachs and others is that billionaires will leave NYC en masse. They’ll go to Texas, Florida, Liechtenstein, UAE, Monaco, Buenos Aires, Singapore, or any number of other places outside of a socialist’s reach.

Some of the more extreme sides of the socialist movement have argued that it is treason to leave the country with wealth earned off the backs of their countrymen.

Polymarket: Mamdani Tops Democratic Primary

Despite his loss, Andrew Cuomo has signaled his intention to run independently under the “Fight and Deliver Party.” Similarly, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams remains in the race as an independent, following a controversial tenure marked by corruption allegations that the Department of Justice later abandoned.

Mamdani declared, “Tonight, we made history. I will be your Democratic nominee for the mayor of New York City.”

Polymarket’s Mixed Track Record

Regardless of how Mamdani’s vision pans out, Polymarket gave Cuomo 80% odds for two months. That flipped within 30 minutes of vote returns, and Mamdani shot to 94.6%.

Nate Silver credited the platform for beating cable news to the punch. While its early bets missed, it nailed the turn when it mattered.

However, it should be noted that Polymarket was wrong and could screw up other critical elections in the future.

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