Market participants on Kalshi are signaling growing confidence that Elon Musk wealth could reach historic levels, with traders actively pricing a trillionaire scenario.
Kalshi traders price in trillionaire scenario for Elon Musk
Traders on prediction platform Kalshi are currently assigning Elon Musk a 53% chance of becoming a trillionaire before 2029. The contract reflects a focused view on whether the Tesla and SpaceX CEO can reach a $1 trillion net worth milestone in the next four years.
However, that confidence has softened slightly in recent trading. The probability has slipped by 3% from earlier levels, indicating some cooling in short-term optimism even as the overall odds remain above 50%.
Shifting odds across different time horizons
While the headline 53% chance grabs attention, other Kalshi contracts suggest more nuanced sentiment around Elon Musk’s future net worth. The chance of him hitting trillionaire status before 2028 has fallen to 48%, signaling greater doubt over a very rapid climb in personal fortune.
Moreover, expectations for a longer runway have also eased. The probability that Musk becomes a trillionaire before 2030 dropped even more sharply, sliding to 52%. That said, all three contracts still imply that markets see better-than-even odds he eventually crosses the $1 trillion threshold.
IPO speculation and SpaceX valuation dynamics
Prediction market investor sentiment is closely tied to Musk’s corporate empire, especially SpaceX. Speculation around the company’s public-market debut has intensified after Musk publicly endorsed an article by Ars Technica journalist Eric Berger. The piece argued that 2026 could be a strategically sound window for a SpaceX listing.
Multiple outlets have reported that SpaceX is exploring a 2026 IPO while conducting a share sale valuing the company at roughly $800 billion.
However, any further appreciation in that private valuation, combined with moves in Tesla and other assets, would be central to the elon musk wealth trajectory that Kalshi traders are attempting to price.
In summary, Kalshi markets currently see Musk as more likely than not to become a trillionaire, even as probabilities have eased. The evolving valuation of SpaceX and the timing of a potential IPO in 2026 will likely remain key drivers for how traders reassess his long-term net worth outlook.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/12/12/elon-musk-wealth-2029-odds/
