Crypto traders are bracing for today’s $4.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry. This comes amid a recent rebound in Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and a broader crypto market following a 25 bps Fed rate cut. However, experts such as Glassnode and Matrixport expect range-bound movements in December as liquidity thins.
$4.5 Billion in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Options Expiry
Traders are bracing for huge volatility due to crypto options expiry amid rising uncertainty, with outflow in spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. As compared to Ethereum, Bitcoin options open interest is still higher as crypto market participants expect BTC price to reclaim $100K.
More than 39K Bitcoin options with a notional value of $3.7 billion are set to expire on the largest derivatives crypto exchange Deribit on December 12. The put-call ratio is 1.10, which shows more put option bets as compared to calls by derivatives traders amid crypto market crash jitters.
Moreover, the max pain price was at $90,000, significantly lower than the current market price of $92,310. However, traders expect BTC price to move sideways around $92K in the coming days.
Options traders are adjusting their positions ahead of the triple witching options expiry later this month. Notably, call volume surpassed put volume in the past 24 hours, with a put-call ratio of 0.80.
BTC Options Open Interest. Source: DeribitDeribit says, “The clustering around 90K reflects a market waiting for the next catalyst rather than leaning into directional conviction.”
Meanwhile, 237K Ethereum options with a notional value of almost $0.77 billion are set to expire today. The put-call ratio is bearish at 1.22.
Also, the max pain point is at $3,100, below the current market price of $3,242. Moreover, data shows there is a 66% probability of expiring above $3,200, with traders expecting prices to stay at $3,200 until the year-end.
The call volume rose significantly in the last 24 hours. The put-call ratio is 0.45, indicating bullish sentiment among options traders currently.
BTC Options Open Interest. Source: Deribit“Positioning has shifted into a more neutral distribution, yet call concentration hints that traders remain willing to price in larger ETH moves if volatility reawakens,” Deribit added.
Bitcoin, Crypto Market to Remain Range-Bound: Matrixport
Matrixport said BTC price saw upside momentum after FOMC delivered a 25 bps rate cut, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the monetary outlook is far more uncertain, with the dot plot showing only one rate cut next year.
Bitcoin broke below its long-term moving averages, creating challenges for recovery in line with its cycle pattern. It is witnessing a shift from simple trend following to a more complex “tactical positioning and risk management.”
Crypto liquidity remains tight amid a lack of retail traders and long-term holders. Matrixport predicted consolidation for weeks, if BTC is not in a bear market.
Meanwhile, Glassnode revealed that unrealized losses across the crypto market reached $350 billion, including $85 billion in BTC alone. It added that multiple on-chain indicators signal shrinking liquidity. The market is likely entering a high-volatility regime in the weeks ahead.
Bitcoin Unrealized Losses. Source: GlassnodeSource: https://coingape.com/whats-next-for-crypto-market-as-4-5b-in-bitcoin-ethereum-options-expire-today/
