JPMorgan Says Strategy Holds Key To Bitcoin Price, MSCI Exit Priced In, BTC Could Hit $170K

Banking giant JPMorgan says Michael Saylor’s Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds the key to BTC’s future direction, and that its potential removal from MSCI stock indexes next month is already priced in. 

With the ratio between Strategy’s enterprise value and its Bitcoin holdings, or mNAV, remaining above 1, the world’s biggest corporate Bitcoin buyer is unlikely to be forced to sell some of its $60 billion BTC stash, said analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

“If this ratio stays above 1.0 and MicroStrategy can eventually avoid selling bitcoins, markets will likely be reassured and the worst for bitcoin prices will likely be behind us,” the analysts said.

They reiterated their belief that Bitcoin has huge upside potential, with its volatility-adjusted comparison of Bitcoin to gold implying a theoretical BTC price near $170K within the next six to 12 months.

That’s an 84% increase from the $92,354 level Bitcoin is trading at as of 3:43 a.m. EST, according to CoinMarketCap. 

JPMorgan’s comments follow a more than 49% drop in the MSTR price in the past month amid a broad crypto market correction. 

Strategy share price (Source: Google Finance) 

That share price slump ignited fears that Strategy would be forced to sell some of its 650K BTC to fulfil upcoming debt obligations. Compounding fears is the recent slowdown in Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation, which CryptoQuant says shows the firm is preparing for a bear market. 

Reserve Fund Buffer

The JPMorgan analysts said Strategy’s decision to set up a $1.4 billion US dollar reserve fund to ensure it can meet dividend payments and other obligations further reduces the likelihood that forced Strategy Bitcoin sales will take place “in the foreseeable future.” 

In a recent SEC filing, the company said that the reserve gives it 12 months of runway for its debt repayments. Strategy has added that it will look to extend the cover to a period of 24 months. 

Potential MSCI Removal Already Priced In

Amid the fears that Strategy will sell some BTC as MSTR keeps sliding, there is also the potential removal of the company from MSCI, which is a benchmark used by multiple fund management companies.

Strategy’s share price has plummeted 40% since MSCI announced on Oct. 10 the potential removal of digital asset treasury firms from its indexes. It has also underperformed Bitcoin by 20% during the same period, equating to approximately $18 billion in market value.

Earlier, JPMorgan had warned that the potential removal from MSCI would trigger up to $12 billion in potential outflows for MSTR.

But its analysts now say the impact the possible removal would have on MSTR is “already more than priced in.” 

That jibes with comments made by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan earlier this week.

“I’m not convinced that removal would be a big deal for the stock,” Hougan said. “My experience from watching index additions and deletions over the years is that the effect is typically smaller than you think and priced in well ahead of time.”

When MSTR was added to the Nasdaq 100 Index last December, Hougan said funds tracking the index had to buy $2.1 billion of MSTR, but that its stock price “barely moved.”

MSCI is scheduled to make its decision on Jan. 15. 

The JPMorgan analysts said that if MSCI keeps Strategy in its indexes, there would be a strong rebound for both Bitcoin and MSTR, estimating that this could see prices returning to levels prior to the Oct. 10 flash crash.