Santa Claus Rally 2025: Will Crypto Rally Before Christmas?

The crypto market’s recent crash has sent shockwaves through the community, as Bitcoin fell below $90,000 in late November 2025, a huge drop from its October peak of $126,000. The Fear and Greed Index was pushed to a bone-chilling 19, signaling extreme market concern. This chaos raises a question of whether December will continue the decline or recover due to holiday gains.

This study by NFTPlazas analyzes CoinGecko’s historical market cap and Bitcoin price data from 2014 to 2025 to assess how Christmas impacts crypto performance. We also surveyed 1,020 American investors to determine their holiday-season trading demand and whether a Santa Claus Rally will return this year.

Crypto Santa Claus Rally Has Happened 9 Times in 11 Years

Since 2014, total cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased 9 out of 11 times during the post-Christmas period (December 27 to January 2), achieving an impressive 82% profitability rate. Only two years bucked this trend: 2021, when Bitcoin peaked and began its descent into a prolonged bear market, and 2022, when the FTX collapse in November caused systemic contagion that led to lingering market trauma.

Still, the long-term trend remains clear: December is historically a bullish month for the industry. Across all eleven years analyzed, December has recorded positive performance with an average gain of 13.16% in crypto market capitalization. 

The highlight year remains 2017, when a powerful post-Christmas rally (+11.87%) pushed December’s total market cap increase to an astonishing 94.19%, the strongest holiday surge on record. 

Does Bitcoin Go Up or Down During Christmas?

Over the past 11 years, Bitcoin has rallied 8 times during the pre-Christmas week (December 19-25) and 6 times during the post-Christmas period. This makes Bitcoin’s behavior slightly different from the broader crypto market, which shows stronger post-Christmas performance.

The most dramatic pre-Christmas surge occurred in 2016, when BTC jumped 13.19% in the week leading up to Christmas. This rally signaled the beginning of the historic 2017 bull run and remains the strongest pre-Christmas performance on record. Meanwhile, only 4 years in the last decade (2016, 2018, 2020, and 2023) saw Bitcoin deliver a Santa rally both before and after Christmas. 

December as a whole has recorded positive Bitcoin returns with an average gain of 8.25%. The consistent pattern of positive December returns, combined with the strong pre-Christmas tendency, supports the view that BTC often benefits from seasonal inflows, sentiment boosts, and lower liquidity during the holidays. Bullish December returns also have historically signaled the continuation or beginning of major bull markets, while negative December performance often foreshadowed extended bear markets, as seen in 2021 (-17.22%) before the 2022 crypto winter. 

How Christmas 2025 Can Affect Crypto?

Investor sentiment heading into Christmas 2025 appears overwhelmingly bullish. According to our survey of 1,020 U.S. crypto investors, 57.74% plan to buy crypto this holiday season, more than double the 26% planning to sell. This dramatic disparity between buyers and sellers indicates strong potential for upward price pressure throughout December.

When asked which assets they plan to buy, 79% chose Bitcoin and 46% chose Ethereum. Bitcoin clearly dominates as the preferred “holiday buy”, especially for investors viewing December as an opportunity to front-run the Santa Claus Rally.

Importantly, 79% of buyers plan to purchase crypto before Christmas, with 34.97% targeting the core Santa Rally window between December 16–25 and 44.31% aiming for the first half of December. This aligns with historical patterns, suggesting that the 2025 Bitcoin Santa Claus Rally will likely begin in the pre-Christmas period.

Among those planning to sell crypto in December, the top reasons were year-end profit-taking (45%) and Christmas spending needs (41%). Tax-loss harvesting (17%) and portfolio rebalancing (19%) represent more sophisticated strategies, while 25% of sellers believe crypto will decline in December and want to avoid losses.

Interestingly, crypto investors spend dramatically more during the holidays than average Americans. Among those selling crypto to cover Christmas expenses, the average spending reaches $2428, which is 2.7x higher than the $902 average Christmas spending reported by the National Retail Federation.

How much will investors sell crypto for during 2025 Christmas?
Amount	Percentage
Less than $1,000	51.09%
$1,000 – $2,000	23.36%
$2,001 – $5,000	16.42%
$5,001 – $10,000	3.65%
Over $10,000	5.47%

Methodology

This analysis examines daily total cryptocurrency market capitalization data from December 1, 2014 to January 2, 2025, sourced from CoinGecko. We calculated percentage changes across three time periods:

• Full December: December 1 to December 31
• Pre-Christmas: The week leading up to Christmas Day (December 19 to December 25)
• Post-Christmas: The last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the following year (December 27 to January 2)

The Santa Claus rally is defined as a period where the percentage change is positive (>0%), indicating upward price movement during these specific timeframes. For Bitcoin-specific analysis, we calculated percentage changes in daily Bitcoin price using the same three time periods.

Additionally, we surveyed 1,020 crypto investors in the United States during November 2025 to capture real-time sentiment, trading intentions, and spending patterns during the anticipated Santa Claus rally.

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