Wintermute: Market liquidity is expected to improve in Q1 2026, with future catalysts likely coming from policy and interest rate expectations rather than crypto intranet liquidity.

PANews reported on November 18th that cryptocurrency market maker Windemute analyzed that last week's decline in the cryptocurrency market was mainly driven by the repricing of expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, rather than a problem with market fundamentals. Bitcoin needs to re-enter a trading range to improve market sentiment.

Analysis indicates that the pressure stemmed partly from large holders reducing their positions. While the sell-off from Q4 to Q1 is typically seasonal, this trend occurred earlier this year, partly due to market expectations that the four-year cycle might suggest weaker performance in the coming year. This expectation accelerated risk aversion and amplified market volatility. However, this decline lacked substantial fundamental issues and was primarily driven by US macroeconomic factors.

Despite the impact of short-term interest rate adjustments on market sentiment, there are no signs of a deterioration in the global macroeconomic environment. The world remains in an easing cycle: Japan plans an $110 billion stimulus package, China continues its easing policies, the US quantitative easing program will end next month, and fiscal stimulus channels remain active. The market is currently more driven by macroeconomic factors, and the lack of new data to support interest rate expectations has led to increased market responsiveness.

Wintermute believes that Bitcoin's recent decline is more of a macro-driven adjustment than a structural issue. With continued global easing policies, the US quantitative easing program ending next month, and liquidity expected to improve in the first quarter of next year, the overall market environment remains constructive. A recovery in market sentiment requires confirmation from mainstream assets, and future catalysts may come from policy and interest rate expectations rather than liquidity within the crypto industry. Once mainstream assets rebound, the market may see a broader recovery.