Bitcoin price falls below $94k as liquidations spike and ETFs bleed, is more downside coming?

Bitcoin price slid to its lowest level in over six months on Monday, weighed down by a wave of liquidations and ongoing outflows from its spot ETFs.

Summary

• Bitcoin price is down over 10% in the last 7 days.
• Over $240 million has been liquidated from BTC futures market.
• Bitcoin has confirmed a death cross on the daily chart.

According to data from crypto.news, the world’s largest crypto asset was trading around $95k last check on Nov. 17, morning Asian time. It fell below $94,000 support to an intraday low of $93,029 earlier in the session, the lowest recorded since April 12 this year. 

At its current price, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 10.6% in the past 7 days and 24.6% below its year-to-date and all-time high of $126k reached about a month ago.

Bitcoin price continued its downtrend on Monday as derivatives traders appear to be de-risking their positions amid decreasing odds that the Federal Reserve will announce another rate cut this year. Such a shift in expectations tends to spark risk-off sentiment across broader markets, including crypto.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in December have fallen to 43.9%, while a separate prediction market on Polymarket shows the probability at just 46%, sharply down from over 80% at the start of November.

In the past 24 hours, around $243 million worth of positions were liquidated across the Bitcoin futures market, with long positions making up the majority at $136.6 million.

Major liquidation events unfold when leveraged positions are forcibly closed by the exchange due to insufficient margin, which can lead to cascading sell pressure, like the one seen last month when over $20 billion was flushed out of the market.

Waning demand from institutional investors has also been another major factor weighing on Bitcoin’s recent price action. The 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have recorded more than $2.3 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks, data from SoSoValue show.

Sustained capital flight from the spot ETF market is a sign of weak confidence among large investors and may continue to pressure Bitcoin’s price over this week, especially if broader macro uncertainty persists.

Bitcoin price confirmed a death cross

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin price has confirmed a death cross, a very bearish pattern in technical analysis that forms when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average. Historically, Bitcoin has often seen extended downside pressure in the months following the appearance of such a pattern on the chart.

Bitcoin price also closed its weekly candle below the 50-day exponential moving average last week for the first time since August 2023, a sign that momentum may be shifting in favor of the bears.

The Aroon Up indicator stood at 92.86% while the Aroon Down was at 0%, further confirming that bears were in control of the market.

For now, the $93,770 to $94,000 region looks like the next key support zone for Bitcoin, a drop below which could trigger losses toward the $90,000 psychological support or even lower.

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