Bitcoin Plunges Below $96K as Stock Market Sell-Off Deepens on Fed Rate Uncertainty

TLDR

• US stock futures showed minimal movement Friday after major indexes suffered their worst single-day decline in over a month, with tech stocks leading losses
• Bitcoin crashed below $100,000, falling 6.5% to $96,968 and losing over $450 billion in market value since early October
• Federal Reserve rate cut probability for December dropped to 52%, down from 63% one day prior and 95% a month ago
• Applied Materials warned China chipmaking equipment spending will fall in 2026 due to US export restrictions, projecting a $600 million revenue impact
• Weekly unemployment claims decreased to approximately 227,543, but the decline wasn’t substantial enough to support arguments for a December rate cut

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US stock markets faced continued pressure Friday morning as futures remained near breakeven following the previous session’s sharp sell-off. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures traded slightly below flat. Nasdaq 100 futures edged down 0.1%.

E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 25 (ES=F)

Thursday’s trading session delivered the biggest one-day losses for major indexes since October 10. The Dow gave back gains that had briefly pushed the index above 48,000 for the first time. Tech-heavy indexes led declines as major technology companies saw heavy selling pressure.

Nvidia, Broadcom, and Tesla all posted substantial losses during Thursday’s session. Oracle has shed more than one-third of its market value since peaking in September. Market analysts suggest investors are losing confidence in a year-end tech rally.

Rate Cut Expectations Collapse

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have deteriorated rapidly. Traders now assign just 52% odds to a quarter-point reduction next month. This represents a dramatic shift from 63% probability one day earlier and over 95% a month ago.

Federal Reserve officials have adopted more cautious language in recent public comments. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that recent economic data demonstrates ongoing economic resilience. He indicated a rate hold could be appropriate, though he acknowledged both options remain on the table.

The Fed implemented 25 basis point rate cuts at both its September and October meetings. These reductions aimed to support labor market conditions. CME’s FedWatch Tool currently shows roughly even odds for another cut at the December meeting.

Weekly unemployment insurance applications from state sources showed a modest decline last week. First-time claims fell to around 227,543 for the week ending November 8. The prior week registered 228,899 claims.

Cryptocurrency Market Under Pressure

Bitcoin extended its decline Friday, breaking below the psychologically important $100,000 level. The leading cryptocurrency traded at $96,968 after dropping 6.5%. Bitcoin has erased more than $450 billion in value since early October.

The token is heading for its third straight weekly loss. Investment flows into Bitcoin from major funds, exchange-traded products, and corporate buyers have weakened. The cryptocurrency decline mirrors broader risk asset weakness tied to rate uncertainty and tech stock losses.

Semiconductor Equipment Outlook Dims

Applied Materials issued cautious guidance on Chinese market conditions for chipmaking equipment. The company projects spending in China will decrease next year as US export controls tighten. Applied Materials couldn’t ship $110 million in goods during its most recent fiscal quarter due to restrictions.

These restrictions were temporarily suspended after President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met last month. The company previously disclosed that expanded US export limitations will reduce fiscal 2026 revenue by $600 million. Applied Materials expects AI-related capital spending to boost semiconductor equipment sales in the latter half of next year.

Chinese industrial production data released Friday showed 4.9% year-over-year growth in October. The result missed economist expectations of 5.5% and represented a slowdown from September’s 6.5% expansion.

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