Bitcoin has rebounded above $103,000 after a turbulent October, during which the cryptocurrency briefly fell below the $100,000 threshold. New data from on-chain analysts and major financial institutions now suggests significant upside potential in the coming months.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo identified a critical shift in market dynamics. Bitcoin liquidity has begun recovering, typically signalling price gains within two weeks. The recovery follows a period of extreme market stress that resulted in the liquidation of over $1 trillion in value across the cryptocurrency sector.
Source: X
October’s downturn stemmed largely from technical factors rather than fundamental weaknesses. Excessive leverage positions unravelled following unexpected tariff announcements. Daily liquidations reached 300,000 traders at the peak of the selloff. Market structure buckled under the pressure.
JPMorgan Projects 60% Upside
JPMorgan analysts released a forecast this week projecting Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within six to 12 months. Strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team base their projection on Bitcoin’s relationship to gold markets.
The bank’s model treats Bitcoin as digital gold, but it adjusts for its higher volatility. Their framework assumes Bitcoin requires 1.8 times more risk capital than gold investments. Given $6.2 trillion in private gold holdings through ETFs and physical assets, Bitcoin’s market capitalisation needs to expand by two-thirds to match equivalent risk-adjusted exposure.
The difference between BTC prices and gold adjusted for volatility. Source: JP Morgan
The current Bitcoin market capitalisation stands at nearly $2.1 trillion. The gold-based valuation model suggests Bitcoin trades approximately $68,000 below fair value. This represents a sharp contrast to late 2024, when Bitcoin traded above the model’s estimates.
JPMorgan downplayed concerns about tightening banking reserves affecting broader markets. While liquidity among banks faces constraints, the overall money supply and non-bank liquidity continue to expand. This environment supports risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.
The bank emphasized that its projection follows mechanical analysis rather than sentiment. Recent stabilization in perpetual futures markets indicates that deleveraging has largely concluded. October and November selloffs that followed the $120 million Balancer exploit appear to be in the rearview mirror.
Political Tailwinds Strengthen Outlook
President Trump amplified pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric during a visit to Miami. He declared intentions to establish the United States as the Bitcoin superpower and crypto capital of the world. The statement represents clear policy direction from the highest levels of government.
Speculation has intensified around potential US strategic Bitcoin reserves. Policy clarity could trigger rallies similar to past bull runs driven by regulatory breakthroughs. The shift from regulatory uncertainty toward pro-crypto reform extends beyond rhetoric. Macro conditions also align favorably. Federal Reserve signals on quantitative tightening suggest the liquidity squeeze may be easing.
However, not all institutional voices share JPMorgan’s optimism. Investment firm Galaxy reduced its Bitcoin forecast for 2025 to $120,000 from a previous target of $185,000 on Wednesday. The dramatic 35% downward revision reflects mounting concerns about market structure and whale behaviour.
The price of BTC on Tuesday. Source: TradingView
Source: https://coinpaper.com/12192/jp-morgan-s-shocking-bitcoin-prediction-why-170-k-is-now-within-reach-in-2025
