Volatile winters punctuated with blasts of frigid temperatures create demand planning challenges for utilities.
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This winter is going to keep everyone guessing. A La Niña winter can create dramatic temperature swings, and the season is already delivering on that promise, as I recently wrote about in Forbes. The volatility will create new challenges for utilities in terms of planning and budgeting, but there are also new tools that can help them manage those challenges.
A major Arctic blast is expected to grip the central and eastern United States by mid-November, bringing the coldest air of the season so far, with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below normal and frost possible as far south as northern Florida. Yet just a week later, much of that chill will fade as warmth surges back, signaling the start of the back-and-forth pattern that will likely define the months ahead.
Across much of North America, these early indicators point to an unsettled season ahead, marked by frequent shifts between colder and warmer periods rather than long stretches of either. My colleagues at DTN are predicting a season full of large swings in temperature for many areas of the country and a winter that averages a little colder overall than last year.
A weak La Niña in the Pacific is expected to influence how the winter develops, particularly later in the season. Early forecasts suggest a higher chance of cold outbreaks in the central and eastern U.S. during December and January. Although the Southeast may average warmer than normal, La Niña winters often bring one or two intense cold waves reaching deep into the southern states.
DTN
For utilities, this kind of volatility poses a far greater challenge than cold alone. Each rapid shift in temperature reverberates through demand forecasts, fuel procurement and grid operations. The greater threat this winter isn’t a single cold outbreak, but the economic cost of constant change.
Volatility Creates Blind Spots For Demand Planning
When one Arctic surge is followed by an extended thaw, the demand curve becomes a moving target. The greater the volatility, the harder it becomes to balance storage, pricing and procurement. Forecast models that once relied on stable seasonal trends now must account for rapid reversals in temperature and energy use.
Consider the 2023-2024 winter which, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, was 9% warmer than the 10-year average, with the Midwest roughly 12% warmer than forecast. This deviation might sound minor, but it has major financial consequences. For gas utilities, it means contracted supply volumes can sit unused. For electric providers, it can leave generation assets operating below capacity for weeks, then stretched to the limit when the next cold front arrives.
This winter’s pattern of large, frequent swings will amplify those mismatches. The gap between those extremes is where utilities lose margin as well as credibility if customers experience either supply tightness or rate instability.
The Cost of Constant Adjustment
Every major utility now runs scenario-based planning models to simulate different weather outcomes. But what used to be a monthly or seasonal exercise has become an almost continuous process. Forecast teams are relying more on ensemble and AI-based models to detect mild or extreme periods sooner, allowing operations teams to pivot fuel sourcing, generation scheduling and maintenance work in near real time.
Even so, volatility has its costs. When demand plunges, gas storage fills faster than expected, and market prices fall. When temperatures rebound suddenly, the opposite happens, and inventory depletes too quickly, resulting in price spikes. For example, U.S. natural gas storage inventory levels were at a five-year high, indicating the U.S. had plentiful resources to meet heating demand for the 2024-2025 winter season. But in mid-December, New England endured one of its coldest winters in 10 years, causing natural gas and electricity spot prices to surge.
Both outcomes can ripple through budgets, revenue forecasts and rate filings. For investor-owned utilities, the financial exposure can reach tens of millions of dollars in a single quarter.
For smaller cooperatives and municipal utilities, the challenge is more about flexibility than scale. They must manage shorter procurement windows, hedge more cautiously and communicate with customers whose bills can fluctuate sharply from one month to the next. In this environment, accurate forecasting is no longer enough. The new imperative is forecast agility and the ability to act on shifts before they reshape operations.
Operational Readiness In A Shifting Climate
The broader pattern shaping this winter underscores how critical short-term forecasting and communication have become. When the weather keeps changing, outage restoration, pipeline scheduling and maintenance planning all become moving targets.
Some utilities are responding by embedding meteorological insight deeper into operations. Cross-department planning meetings that used to happen monthly are now weekly. Long-range models are paired with sub-seasonal outlooks to anticipate 20- to 40-day inflection points in demand. A growing number of utilities are even integrating real-time weather feeds into energy management systems to automate dispatch decisions.
Weather Intelligence Is A Strategic Advantage
For utility leaders, weather volatility is no longer just an operational concern; it is a financial and reputational one. The traditional approach to winter planning assumed predictable seasonal demand and gradual change. That assumption no longer holds. Short, dramatic temperature swings can distort everything from day-ahead pricing to long-term rate recovery.
Regulators and investors are increasingly expecting utilities to demonstrate resilience not only during outages, but across fluctuating market conditions. That means building systems that anticipate variability, not just endure it. The industry’s most forward-thinking leaders are treating weather as a strategic input, one that informs fuel procurement, capital planning and even customer engagement.
Volatility also creates an opportunity. Each fluctuation in demand produces new data about consumption behavior, grid performance and pricing elasticity. The utilities that invest in analytics, scenario modeling and AI-driven forecasting are turning those disruptions into insight. What once looked like instability can now become a feedback loop for smarter planning.
The upcoming Arctic outbreak and the rapid rebound expected to follow will offer an early test of that agility. It will show how well utilities can translate forecast volatility into operational foresight and financial resilience. The defining challenge of this winter is not how cold or warm it becomes, but how quickly it changes. The utilities best positioned to succeed are those that can turn those swings into strategy and uncertainty into action.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimfoerster/2025/11/07/la-nina-and-the-cost-of-a-volatile-winter-for-utility-providers/
