Apple (AAPL) Stock: Morgan Stanley Projects $133 Billion Robotics Revenue by 2040

TLDR

• Morgan Stanley estimates Apple’s robotics business could generate $133 billion in annual revenue by 2040 with a 9% market share.
• Apple is reportedly working on a tabletop robotic arm with an iPad-like display that can turn toward users when they speak.
• The investment bank projects 415,000 humanoid robots could be adopted by US households annually by 2040, with an average price of $30,000 per unit.
• Apple has $130 billion in cash and a 2.3 billion device install base that positions it well for the robotics market.
• The company’s dormant self-driving car project provided research and technologies now being used by its Apple Robotics unit.

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Morgan Stanley released a research report projecting Apple could generate $133 billion in annual revenue from humanoid robotics by 2040. The investment bank’s median case assumes Apple captures 9% of the market share within 15 years.

Erik Woodring, a Morgan Stanley analyst who covers Apple, wrote that the company is uniquely positioned to lead in intelligent machines. He noted that few investors fully appreciate this opportunity today.

The robotics revenue projection represents roughly 30% of Apple’s current revenue base. In an optimistic scenario, the bank estimates the business could reach $300 billion by 2040.

Apple Inc., AAPL

Apple is reportedly working on a tabletop robotic arm attached to an iPad-like display. According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, the device can turn toward users when they speak to it. The company plans to potentially launch this product in 2027.

Household Robot Adoption Projections

Morgan Stanley projects 415,000 humanoid robots will be adopted by US households annually by 2040. This represents a 1.65% household penetration rate.

The cumulative total would reach 1.6 million units across American homes by that time. The analysts estimate an average selling price of $30,000 per humanoid robot.

Woodring noted that prices will likely continue declining over time. However, the current projected cost equals what consumers pay for a small used car.

Apple has several advantages that could make it a major player in robotics. The company holds $130 billion in cash and equivalents. Its install base includes 2.3 billion devices worldwide.

The company’s defunct self-driving car project provides another edge. Apple’s Project Titan research and technologies are now being used by its Apple Robotics unit. The company invested one billion dollars through Softbank nearly a decade ago in related technologies.

Technology Challenges Remain

Several technical hurdles remain before humanoid robots can become household items. Computer vision systems need perfecting to avoid people, pets, and household objects.

Robots must be able to pick up, move, and set down delicate items like glassware safely. Current demonstrations show robots can load dishwashers or move objects between fixed locations.

However, these machines operate slowly. They aren’t yet practical for quick household tasks like cleaning before guests arrive.

The broader robotics industry is expanding. Foxconn plans to deploy humanoid robots at its Nvidia AI server plant in Houston. Amazon rolled out its 1 millionth robot to a fulfillment center in Japan in June.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang describes robotics as a multitrillion-dollar opportunity. The company markets its Isaac Gr00t foundation models and Jetson AGX Thor computer for robot training.

Tesla is working on its Optimus line of humanoid robots. CEO Elon Musk claimed 80% of Tesla’s value will be tied to the robots in a post on X.

Amazon tested Agility Robotics’ Digit robot in its warehouses. The company is also testing robots for package delivery according to The Information.

Morgan Stanley outlined several signals to watch for Apple’s robotics progress. These include a successful Apple Intelligence relaunch and increased hiring of AI and robotics engineers.

Other indicators include accelerating patent filings and enhanced visual data collection. Partnerships or acquisitions of robotics companies would also signal serious intent.

The analysts expect Apple’s first robotic products could launch as soon as 2027. The tabletop robot represents the most likely initial entry point into the market.

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