Trump Tariff Odds Plunge to 21% as Supreme Court Questions Presidential Trade Power

TLDR:

• Supreme Court questions Trump’s ability to impose unilateral U.S. tariffs.
• Kalshi shows Trump tariff odds dropping sharply to 21%.
• Market traders expect tighter limits on presidential trade power.
• Decision could redefine U.S. trade policy and market stability.
  

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The odds of Donald Trump reinstating broad U.S. tariffs have dropped sharply after the Supreme Court questioned the extent of presidential authority in trade policy. 

Market data now shows only a 21% probability of Trump regaining unilateral tariff control. The development followed oral arguments where justices expressed doubts about the president’s ability to bypass congressional oversight on trade restrictions.

The ruling, expected later this month, could redefine the scope of executive economic power.

Supreme Court Hearing Puts Presidential Trade Authority Under Pressure

During Tuesday’s hearing, several justices challenged the legal foundation that allowed previous administrations to impose sweeping tariffs under emergency provisions. 

The debate centered on whether the executive branch can act independently without Congress in setting major trade measures. Observers noted that the tone of questioning reflected growing skepticism toward unchecked presidential authority.

Trump’s previous tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports were invoked as examples of overreach that disrupted global supply chains. 

Legal analysts said the justices appeared to favor clearer legislative boundaries, suggesting that future presidents may face stricter limits. Moreover, the line of questioning indicated that a majority of the Court might lean toward curbing discretionary tariff powers.

Traders reacted immediately after the hearing, cutting Trump’s tariff odds from above 30% to 21%. The steep decline mirrored broader uncertainty in U.S. markets, which have been sensitive to potential policy reversals under a future Trump administration. 

Analyst Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) noted that market expectations now reflect a more cautious view on executive-led trade decisions.

Besides the data, futures linked to U.S. manufacturing indices showed slight gains as investors bet on a more predictable trade environment. If the Court rules against broad presidential authority, it could limit abrupt tariff actions that often cause market volatility.

Markets Brace for Policy Shift as Decision Nears

Investors are closely watching the Supreme Court’s final decision, which could have major implications for both domestic industries and global trading partners. A ruling that limits presidential trade power would require congressional approval for new tariffs, introducing procedural hurdles but enhancing transparency.

Economists suggest the outcome could calm markets and stabilize trade relations strained by previous unilateral actions. However, a ruling upholding broad executive authority might revive fears of trade shocks similar to those seen between 2018 and 2020. 

Consequently, hedge funds and policy analysts are adjusting forecasts for sectors most exposed to tariff risks, such as manufacturing, energy, and agriculture.

In Washington, trade-focused lawmakers are preparing potential legislative responses depending on the verdict. 

Some members of Congress argue that curbing presidential discretion would restore balance between branches of government. Others warn that excessive restrictions could weaken the U.S. response to foreign trade manipulation.

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