Bitcoin lags as U.S. inflation cools and risk-on sentiment returns, says CryptoQuant

Bitcoin and broader crypto markets are showing early signs of renewed investor appetite after U.S. inflation data came in softer than expected, according to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. 

In a post on X, the firm noted that a “risk-on” tone has returned across global markets since the release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed inflation cooling modestly while economic growth remains resilient.

Comparison of Bitcoin’s price performance relative to CPI readings over the last year. Source: Cryptoquant

The  0.3% September CPI rose from 0.2% the previous month, and this is slightly below consensus expectations, helping fuel a rally across equities and risk assets. “Markets loved it. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ripped to new all-time highs,” CryptoQuant wrote. “Bitcoin followed through.”

Stocks soar, metals steady, Bitcoin lags behind

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surged to record highs after the CPI release. Source: CryptoQuant

Following the CPI release, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surged to record highs, extending 2025’s strong equity performance.

On the other hand, gold and silver traded flat, reflecting a pause in demand for traditional safe havens. “With inflation easing, the rush to safety paused,” CryptoQuant noted. “The metals market is quietly saying: ‘We’ll wait.’”

According to the data report, Bitcoin prices went up not long after the CPI print, then it saw a drop before pulling back and going up higher. CryptoQuant stated that the pattern is a “classic announcement volatility: fast move, fast unwind, then the real trend builds.”

In CryptoQuant’s analysis report, Bitcoin was roughly 8% below its all-time high (ATH). However, as of the time of reporting, it had dropped to 9.26% and still lags behind equities in terms of recent momentum. However, the analytics firm suggested that the sentiment shift in traditional markets could spill over into crypto. “Risk appetite is back,” it said, “but not fully into crypto yet.”

Risk-on narrative returns

The inflation print appears to have revived investors’ willingness to come back into growth and speculative assets, which is a change from the defensive tone that dominated markets earlier in the quarter. 

According to reports, the CPI data provided an extra boost to an already optimistic market mood, lifting both equities and cryptocurrencies in anticipation of a more accommodative monetary policy path.

CryptoQuant’s data suggests that institutional inflows have yet to match the pace seen during the previous market cycle.

Waiting for conviction

The interplay between macroeconomic trends and digital assets has grown increasingly tight. As CryptoQuant pointed out, cooling inflation plus strong growth is the perfect mix for stocks. However, it also observed that the crypto market is yet to fully catch up.

It also shows that institutional and retail investors, while showing signs of a revival in their spending, are still approaching the asset class with caution, despite improving macro conditions. While Bitcoin continues to mirror risk-on patterns, recent market events show that it’s still very much prone to liquidity dynamics and the pace of Federal Reserve policy shifts.

As CryptoQuant put it, “The story of this CPI print” is that inflation is cooling, stocks are at record highs, metals are steady, and Bitcoin is lagging but building.

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