Analyst Warns Against Buying Hedera (HBAR): Says It Could Be One of Crypto’s Biggest Traps

Hedera has returned to the spotlight after a strong warning from crypto YouTuber Crypto MindSet, who argued that buying HBAR at current levels could become an expensive mistake if the broader downtrend continues. The analyst, whose YouTube channel has more than 36,000 subscribers, believes the current HBAR price structure resembles previous bear market cycles that led to deep losses for investors who entered too early.

His view arrives as Hedera continues trading below previous cycle highs, even though the project has continued expanding its enterprise partnerships and network development.

Crypto MindSet built his argument around HBAR’s historical price performance. He claimed that the current chart resembles the pattern that followed Hedera’s 2021 peak.

The analyst pointed to the previous cycle, where HBAR fell from around $0.60 to well below $0.01 before spending years moving sideways. His main concern is that the latest recovery never produced a higher all time high. Instead, he believes Hedera formed a lower high before turning lower again.

Crypto MindSet argued that this behavior shows buyer demand has weakened compared with the previous cycle. From his perspective, investors purchasing HBAR during an active bear market face the risk of enduring another extended decline before any meaningful recovery begins.

He also warned that a break below the long term trendline could accelerate selling pressure. His analysis suggests that losing key support levels during 2026 could open the door to fresh cycle lows, although he acknowledged that holding above trendline support would weaken that bearish outlook.

Another major part of his argument focused on timing. Crypto MindSet believes investors should avoid accumulating altcoins during bear markets. Instead, he argued that stronger opportunities often appear after prices stabilize and begin trading sideways for an extended period before a new market cycle starts.

Strong Fundamentals Continue To Support The Long Term Hedera Story

Crypto MindSet presented a strongly bearish technical view, although Hedera’s fundamentals continue moving in a different direction.

Hedera’s Governing Council includes major global companies such as Google, IBM, and FedEx. Those partnerships continue supporting enterprise use cases that include real world asset tokenization and supply chain solutions.

Regulatory developments could also play an important role for HBAR. The proposed CLARITY Act would classify many digital assets under clearer regulatory rules. A favorable outcome could remove uncertainty that has weighed on institutional participation across the crypto sector.

Another development worth watching is the proposed spot HBAR exchange traded fund submitted by Canary Capital. Approval remains uncertain, although such products could eventually expand institutional access to Hedera if regulators give them the green light.

Network development has also continued despite the weak HBAR price. Hedera completed its v0.74 mainnet upgrade during June 2026, which introduced additional features designed to support enterprise supply chain applications.

Large investors have shown activity as well. Reports indicated that roughly $250 million worth of HBAR changed hands through over-the-counter transactions before the recent decline. Those purchases occurred away from public exchanges, which reduced immediate selling pressure and may indicate some institutional investors continue building positions over longer time horizons.

Several Market Factors Continue To Pressure The HBAR Price

Hedera’s recent weakness cannot be explained by project specific developments alone.

The wider cryptocurrency market has remained under pressure after the total crypto market capitalization declined by about 1.79%. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded fresh inflows on July 6, although analysts continue describing the broader recovery as fragile because United States demand remains soft and macroeconomic uncertainty continues hanging over financial markets.

That environment has made many altcoins, including HBAR, more vulnerable to broad market sentiment than project specific news.

Read Also: Stellar (XLM), XRP, or Hedera (HBAR): Which Crypto Has the Best Chance to Retire You?

Another issue is the lack of a major catalyst focused exclusively on Hedera. Recent market data shows no major partnership announcement, ecosystem breakthrough, or security event capable of driving independent price action. Market sentiment has remained relatively balanced, leaving HBAR largely influenced by Bitcoin and overall crypto market conditions.

Technical indicators also show Hedera approaching an important decision point. HBAR recently tested a key Fibonacci support level near $0.0685. Immediate resistance now appears close to the 7 day simple moving average around $0.0733.

HBAR Price Chart / TradingView.com

The Relative Strength Index remains near 41. That reading places HBAR in relatively weak territory, although it does not indicate extremely oversold conditions.

Another event could soon influence the next move. The upcoming United States Consumer Price Index report on July 14 may affect expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. A softer inflation reading could improve sentiment across risk assets. Higher-than-expected inflation could create fresh pressure across cryptocurrencies, including Hedera.

FAQs

What does the HBAR token do?

HBAR is the native cryptocurrency of the Hedera network. It acts as the network’s fuel to pay for transaction fees, file storage, and smart contracts, while also being staked to secure the network. Hedera is designed to be an ultra-fast, low-cost enterprise-grade network governed by major global organizations

Can HBAR reach $1 dollar?

Yes, HBAR reaching $1 is mathematically possible and considered realistic by analysts, but it requires a massive market shift. 

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