PAS support a ‘double-edged sword’ for BN in Johor, says analyst

Analysts say PAS’s directive that its members assist BN in Johor seats not contested by PN may give BN a short-term advantage, but comes with risks.

PETALING JAYA: PAS’s support for Barisan Nasional in Johor may prove a “double-edged sword”, with analysts saying it may draw additional Malay votes but also pose a risk to the state’s image as an open investment hub.

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri.

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri said the political impact of such support should not be viewed solely through an electoral lens, as Johor is now in a crucial phase of attracting major investments via the Johor‑Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ), data centres, the RTS Link and the Forest City Special Financial Zone.

The Global Asia Consulting analyst said a recent Bloomberg report on concerns within the business community over PAS’s growing influence should be taken seriously, especially as Johor’s growth strategy is closely tied to investor-sensitive projects and its economic links with Singapore.

He said PAS’s directive for its members and supporters to help BN in Johor seats not contested by Perikatan Nasional may give BN a short-term advantage in terms of Malay votes.

“But foreign investors bringing in billions of ringgit do not look only at party colours. They look at policy stability, cultural openness and bureaucratic speed.

“Accepting PAS’s political support to win an election is a short-term tactic that risks sacrificing a long-term economic strategy,” he told FMT.

Zaharuddin said the real issue was not merely whether PAS would be part of a stable government, but whether Johor would still be seen as a pragmatic, open and stable gateway for investment.

He said the development also gave Pakatan Harapan room to present itself as a more reassuring choice in urban, semi-urban and mixed seats, especially among voters who prioritise market stability and social openness.

On July 2, Bloomberg reported that the business community was becoming increasingly cautious over PAS’s growing influence, as the Islamic party was gaining traction in national politics and could potentially play a bigger role in the formation of future governments.

According to the report, investor concerns were focused on the possibility of a shift in policy tone if the party gains influence in government, especially as regards economic openness, social policy and the business environment.

Azmi Hassan.

However, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said concerns that PAS would determine the direction of the Johor government if BN wins may be overstated.

He said PAS’s support should be viewed more as electoral cooperation to prevent a split in Malay votes, rather than an indication that the party would be given a formal role in the state administration.

“PAS says it will help in terms of votes, but the reality is that Umno will be the backbone of the state government,” he said.

“I am confident that if Umno is capable of winning more than 40 seats, it will not invite PAS to join the state government as a gesture of appreciation,” he said.

Azmi said PAS’s previous experience in the federal government showed that the party’s presence in the administration did not necessarily lead to sweeping policy changes.

“If we look at PAS’s history in the federal government, even though it was given two or three ministerial posts, it did not bring about any holistic policy change in the government,” he said.