SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Is Down 32% — Is It Finally a Buy?

TLDR

• SpaceX signed compute deals worth nearly $28 billion annually with Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI
• SPCX stock has pulled back 32% from its $225 high, now trading near $153
• SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 but posted a $4.94 billion net loss
• Elon Musk said he would be “disappointed” if SpaceX doesn’t vastly exceed Wall Street revenue projections
• At over 100x trailing sales, analysts like Morningstar peg fair value around $780 billion — roughly half the current market cap

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SpaceX (SPCX) stock is trading around $153, about 32% below its post-IPO peak of $225 and only 14% above its $135 offer price from the June 12 debut.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The company completed the largest IPO in history, raising $85.7 billion. The stock surged on opening day but has since pulled back during a broader tech sell-off.

SpaceX grew revenue 33% in 2025 to $18.7 billion. Starlink led the way with $11.4 billion — about 61% of total revenue — up 48% year over year. Starlink also ended March 2026 with more than 10 million subscribers.

Despite that growth, SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025. Heavy spending on Starship development and its xAI segment are the main drags. The AI unit brought in $3.2 billion in revenue but is still losing money.

SpaceX’s Shift to AI Infrastructure

The most watched development right now is SpaceX’s pivot in how it monetizes its AI infrastructure.

Rather than using its GPU capacity to grow its own AI products, SpaceX is renting that compute out to other labs. Anthropic will pay $1.25 billion per month for the full Colossus 1 data center. Alphabet has committed $920 million per month. Reflection AI is paying $150 million per month for additional capacity.

Those three deals alone add up to nearly $28 billion in annualized revenue.

Management said in its IPO filing that it has enough capacity to meet all three agreements while still supporting its own AI models. The filing also noted that its large language model Grok is expected to remain a niche player.

That’s a telling admission. SpaceX is effectively becoming a neocloud provider — selling undifferentiated compute to AI labs rather than competing with them.

How Does SpaceX Stack Up on Valuation?

Comparable neocloud operators trade at much lower multiples. CoreWeave has a contracted revenue backlog of nearly $100 billion and trades at around 4.2 times sales. Oracle’s remaining performance obligations total $638 billion and it trades at about 5 times sales.

SpaceX, by contrast, trades at more than 100 times trailing 12-month sales with a $2 trillion market cap.

Morningstar values SpaceX at roughly $780 billion — about half its current market price. The bull case requires nearly everything to go right: Starlink continuing rapid growth, Starship development on schedule, and xAI losses narrowing.

On Sunday, Elon Musk posted on X that he would be “disappointed” if SpaceX didn’t vastly exceed Wall Street’s revenue milestones. Earlier this month he suggested the company could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 — more than triple Morgan Stanley’s estimate of $330 billion. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic at $470 billion by 2030, while New Street Research projects around $195 billion.

SpaceX has $100.8 billion in cash as of mid-June and has announced a senior unsecured bond offering. Its next financial update is scheduled for August 17, when it reports second-quarter earnings for the first time as a public company.

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