Daily Market Update: Federal Reserve Holds Rates but Signals Higher Inflation, Sending Bitcoin Lower

TLDR

• Bitcoin dropped 3% to around $63,900 while Ether, XRP, and Solana all fell over 3%
• The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% but signaled higher inflation concerns and possible future hikes
• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh led his first meeting, vowing to deliver price stability
• Trump signed an interim US-Iran peace deal, lifting stock futures but failing to boost crypto
• Analysts expect Bitcoin to stay between $60,000–$70,000 without a major catalyst

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Bitcoin and crypto markets fell broadly on Thursday as a hawkish Federal Reserve spooked investors, even as President Trump’s signed Iran peace deal sent stock futures higher.

Crypto Falls as Fed Takes Center Stage

Bitcoin traded around $63,900, down 3% over 24 hours. Ether fell 3.4% to $1,733. XRP dropped 3.9% to $1.17, and Solana lost 3.6% to $71.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Hyperliquid’s HYPE fell the hardest among majors, dropping 7.2% to $69. It had been the week’s standout performer and still holds a roughly 28% gain over seven days.

Tron was the only major cryptocurrency in the green, up 0.9%.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, in line with what markets expected. But updated projections showed higher inflation forecasts and a slower pace of future rate cuts.

Some Fed officials also raised the possibility that rates may still need to rise. That hawkish tone tightened financial conditions, which tend to pull money away from risk assets like crypto.

It was the first Fed meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. He said there had been rigorous debate before the vote and committed to delivering price stability.

Iran Deal Lifts Stocks, Not Crypto

On the same day, President Trump and his Iranian counterpart signed an interim peace deal that went into effect Thursday. The agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and lift sanctions on Iranian oil.

Nasdaq 100 futures surged roughly 1.4%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.8%. Dow futures climbed 0.6%. Brent crude fell toward $78 a barrel.

E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)

Crypto did not follow stocks higher. That gap suggests crypto is currently trading more on Fed policy than on geopolitical developments.

Thursday was also the last trading day before Wall Street closes Friday for the Juneteenth holiday.

Negotiations on longer-term issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, are expected to continue over the next 60 days.

What Analysts Are Watching

Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, said Bitcoin is likely to stay in a $60,000 to $70,000 range in the coming weeks without a major catalyst.

He pointed to two potential triggers: the signing of the CLARITY Act, a crypto market-structure bill, into law, or further US-Iran de-escalation.

O’Shea also noted that sentiment has been weak as IPOs and AI stocks have pulled attention away from crypto. He expects capital to rotate back as institutional interest grows and regulation becomes clearer.

Bitcoin has held in the low $64,000 range, which suggests heavy selling pressure may be easing. But buyers remain cautious with the Fed keeping conditions tight.

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