The Clock Is Running Out on the CLARITY Act — Here’s Where It Stands

TLDR

• Galaxy Digital lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%
• The bill must pass the Senate before a month-long August recess starting in late July
• Ethics and illicit finance provisions remain unresolved sticking points
• JPMorgan puts the odds below 50%; some D.C. insiders say as low as 5–30%
• Bitcoin is trading around $63,000, down 28% in 2026 and near its 52-week low

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Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorn cut his odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing a shrinking legislative window and unresolved issues in the bill.

Thorn said the bill needs to clear the Senate before a month-long recess beginning in late July. After that, he said, “the window effectively closes.”

He noted that major legislation historically stalls in the lead-up to midterm elections, as lawmakers shift focus to campaigning.

The CLARITY Act already passed the House. The Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees have both passed versions. But the bill still needs at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to advance without prolonged debate.

Thorn outlined several procedural steps still required: floor debate, an amendment process, reconciliation between Senate committee texts, and final House action on any changes.

Sticking Points Remain

Galaxy also flagged that no visible progress has been made on the bill or negotiations around it. Ethics rules and illicit finance provisions remain unresolved and could cost the bill votes on the floor.

Thorn said Galaxy would revise its estimate upward if Senate leaders commit to a July vote and key provisions are finalized.

Galaxy is not alone in its caution. JPMorgan analysts said Wednesday they see less than a 50% chance the bill passes this year, also pointing to a tight congressional calendar.

Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan said Tuesday his outlook is “less optimistic,” and that D.C. insiders he spoke with put the odds between 5% and 30%.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has been pushing hard for a floor vote. She has made at least 15 posts on X about the bill in June alone.

What It Means for Bitcoin

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the bill “essential to the future viability of bitcoin and digital asset markets in the U.S.” He has pushed for passage as early as this summer.

The bill, if passed, would create a regulatory framework for digital assets. Supporters say it could give institutional investors more confidence in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,000. It has fallen 28% so far in 2026 and is close to its 52-week low of $60,074.

If the bill does not reach the Senate floor before the August recess, its chances of passing in 2026 drop sharply.

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