OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA – MAY 7: Jalen Williams #8 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder celebrate during the first half of game two of the Western Conference semifinals against the Denver Nuggets at Paycom Center on May 7, 2025 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)
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Coming off an NBA championship, there will be no shortage of expectations for the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2025-26 season. As difficult as it is to repeat as champion in the modern era, this team is still the favorite to win again this upcoming season.
The Thunder will have a target on its back as the team to beat, and it will take a strong regular season to earn the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference for the third consecutive year and set Oklahoma City up to have home-court advantage throughout not just the West’s side of the playoff bracket, but also into the NBA Finals. That ultimately proved to be a significant factor in the Thunder’s championship run last season.
So what can we expect from the Thunder in the 2025-26 season? The team obviously has the reigning MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who, when healthy, has a case for the best player in the world. Jalen Williams has come into his own and is widely considered a top 15 or 20 player in the entire NBA. Chet Holmgren, who rounds out this trio of stars in Oklahoma City, is already a top-five defensive player in the league, but if he can round out his offensive game, he’ll make the NBA All-Star team this year if everything pans out the way it should.
Combine that with the fact that this team now has championship pedigree and everybody on the roster has experienced that, plus another year of offseason development under their belts, and it’s easy to assume this team will be just as good next season as it was this season. They also have one of the best coaches in the league in Mark Daigneault.
But it’s never that simple, and that’s why it’s so rare for teams to go back-to-back in the modern era of basketball. Still, this Thunder team does have what it takes.
While many of the other Western Conference contenders made trades and free agency acquisitions this summer to try to bolster their rosters and overthrow Oklahoma City, the Thunder really stood pat. Outside of some marginal moves — like trading away Dillon Jones to clear roster space for incoming rookies — the Thunder are running back the same team. Nikola Topić, who the Thunder drafted in the lottery in the 2024 NBA Draft, will be healthy and able to play for the first time this season, though it’s unclear if he’s ready to contribute now. The Thunder’s No. 15 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Thomas Sorber, tore his ACL and won’t be playing this season.
So when you look holistically at the roster and who’s going to be in the nightly rotation, at least early in the season, it’s basically the same team.
And that’s not a bad thing. It’s a team that’s won a championship, a team with chemistry and cohesion. But that does make it interesting to project this upcoming season’s record for the Thunder.
Over the past few seasons, the Thunder has continued to improve year after year and increase their win total. In fact, for the third consecutive season, Oklahoma City increased its win total by double digits, which is absolutely incredible when you zoom out and look at it. From 40 wins in the 2022-23 season, to 57 in 2023-24, to 68 in 2024-25. Considering this team won just 24 games in the 2021-22 season, this is an increase of 44 wins over three seasons. Just special stuff from the Thunder, tied for the fifth-most regular-season wins in a single season of all time in the recent campaign.
They’re going to be expected to be just as good this season. According to BetMGM, the Thunder’s win total is set at 62.5, which in most seasons is the runaway best record in the NBA. Interestingly enough, that’s several games below where Oklahoma City finished last season. Still, it’s the best projected record in the league. The Cleveland Cavaliers are second at 56.5, meaning the Thunder are projected to be six wins better than anybody else — but it’s still a drop-off from last season.
And that’s not unfair. If the Thunder doesn’t win 68 games again this season, it doesn’t mean the team is worse. The reality is they’ll likely manage minutes differently and be more intentional about ensuring the roster is healthy for the playoffs. Oklahoma City is good enough to coast to the No. 1 seed if healthy, and really, what matters is being ready for a deep run in the postseason.
It makes sense that Vegas has OKC winning fewer games than last season. The team will approach things differently, give reps to guys still developing and maybe experiment more with rotations. Add in the possibility of injuries, and fewer wins feels fair.
On the other hand, the Thunder faced significant injury issues last season with both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein missing huge chunks of the year. So there’s also a case to be made that the Thunder could win more games and join the historic 70-win club this season.
With all of these factors and push-pulls in mind, expect the Thunder to land somewhere around 65 wins, which would mean a 65-17 record. To be clear, that doesn’t mean the Thunder would be worse than last season, but 65 wins would still be an incredible season and feels like a fair finishing point for Oklahoma City.
So with this prediction of 65 wins, it would be three fewer than last year, but the Thunder would still be better equipped to run it back and win a second consecutive title if the season is managed the right way and the roster is ready to take on the playoffs head-on. Defending the title might be even more difficult than winning it the first time, but this group is built for the challenge.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholascrain/2025/09/25/predicting-the-okc-thunders-2025-26-record/
