BTC: today price steady at 116,000 USD, but the signals are good

Today, the prezzo di BTC seems substantially steady just above 116,000 USD. 

However, from the markets emerge some signals that suggest a possible continuation of the bull run. 

In addition to all this, there are also signals coming from US politics, which make the situation potentially even more bullish in the medium term. 

The bull run of the BTC price

The current bull run of the Bitcoin price has been underway since May, but in July it seems to have temporarily halted.

After the boom of the second week of July, culminating with the new all-time high well above 120,000 USD, there was actually a correction, which was minimal and short-lived. 

In fact, after only six days of correction, a rebound began that could still be ongoing. 

The problem is that this rebound did not allow the price of BTC to return above $120,000, so much so that since yesterday it has been essentially stagnant, despite a very brief failed attempt to climb back above 117,500 USD.

Therefore, for more than 24 hours its trend has been essentially stagnant, and in line with that of July, excluding the peaks that took it above 120,000 USD, for the first time in its history. 

“`html

BTC/USD Price Chart, Binance market. Source: TradingView { “lineWidth”: 2, “lineType”: 0, “chartType”: “candlesticks”, “fontColor”: “rgb(106, 109, 120)”, “gridLineColor”: “rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.06)”, “volumeUpColor”: “rgba(34, 171, 148, 0.5)”, “volumeDownColor”: “rgba(247, 82, 95, 0.5)”, “backgroundColor”: “#0F0F0F”, “widgetFontColor”: “#DBDBDB”, “upColor”: “#22ab94”, “downColor”: “#f7525f”, “borderUpColor”: “#22ab94”, “borderDownColor”: “#f7525f”, “wickUpColor”: “#22ab94”, “wickDownColor”: “#f7525f”, “colorTheme”: “dark”, “isTransparent”: false, “locale”: “en”, “chartOnly”: false, “scalePosition”: “right”, “scaleMode”: “Normal”, “fontFamily”: “-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Trebuchet MS, Roboto, Ubuntu, sans-serif”, “valuesTracking”: “1”, “changeMode”: “price-and-percent”, “symbols”: [ [ “BINANCE:BTCUSD|1D” ] ], “dateRanges”: [ “1d|1”, “1m|30”, “3m|60”, “12m|1D”, “60m|1W”, “all|1M” ], “fontSize”: “10”, “headerFontSize”: “medium”, “autosize”: false, “width”: 800, “height”: 500, “noTimeScale”: false, “hideDateRanges”: false, “hideMarketStatus”: false, “hideSymbolLogo”: false } “`

The segnali positivi

Despite the situation being very calm today, at least for now, a couple of potentially positive signals clearly emerge. 

The first, small but very clear, is the slight decrease in the selling pressure of BTC on crypto exchanges. 

Note that last week, in the midst of a correction, the selling pressure had slightly increased, therefore the slight reduction in recent days is significant also with regard to the price trend. 

It should be specified, however, that these are minimal fluctuations, compatible with minimal price movements. 

The second signal is less clear, but potentially more important. 

In fact, for almost a month now, the price of Bitcoin has risen despite the US dollar (USD) not being weak, and above all, it has remained at very high levels. It is enough to say that the current price of BTC is only 5% lower than the all-time high. 

The point is that at the end of July, the Dollar Index (DXY) rose significantly, but without the price of BTC falling. It should be noted that the trend of Bitcoin’s price tends to be inversely correlated with the Dollar Index, but only in the medium term.

Currently, the level of the Dollar Index is identical to that of June 16, when the price of BTC was below 110,000 USD, therefore the strength of Bitcoin for almost a month is remarkable, although not yet sufficient to resume the bull run.

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Dollar Index (DXY) trend chart. Source: TradingView { “lineWidth”: 2, “lineType”: 0, “chartType”: “candlesticks”, “fontColor”: “rgb(106, 109, 120)”, “gridLineColor”: “rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.06)”, “volumeUpColor”: “rgba(34, 171, 148, 0.5)”, “volumeDownColor”: “rgba(247, 82, 95, 0.5)”, “backgroundColor”: “#0F0F0F”, “widgetFontColor”: “#DBDBDB”, “upColor”: “#22ab94”, “downColor”: “#f7525f”, “borderUpColor”: “#22ab94”, “borderDownColor”: “#f7525f”, “wickUpColor”: “#22ab94”, “wickDownColor”: “#f7525f”, “colorTheme”: “dark”, “isTransparent”: false, “locale”: “en”, “chartOnly”: false, “scalePosition”: “right”, “scaleMode”: “Normal”, “fontFamily”: “-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Trebuchet MS, Roboto, Ubuntu, sans-serif”, “valuesTracking”: “1”, “changeMode”: “price-and-percent”, “symbols”: [ [ “CAPITALCOM:DXY|1D” ] ], “dateRanges”: [ “1d|1”, “1m|30”, “3m|60”, “12m|1D”, “60m|1W”, “all|1M” ], “fontSize”: “10”, “headerFontSize”: “medium”, “autosize”: false, “width”: 800, “height”: 500, “noTimeScale”: false, “hideDateRanges”: false, “hideMarketStatus”: false, “hideSymbolLogo”: false } “` “`html

The external signals

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However, there are also two external signals. 

The first, very important, came yesterday when the news spread that Trump would have signed an executive order to make it easier for American pension funds to invest in cryptocurrencies.

The official news of the signing of the executive order then arrived today, but yesterday the mere rumor was enough to drive the price of BTC up from less than 115,000 to almost 117,000 USD.

In reality, this news could have positive effects especially in the medium/long term, but the markets have still taken it well even in the short term. 

The second signal is more complex. 

It derives from the appointment of Stephen Miran as a member of the Fed Board following the resignation of Adriana Kugler. 

Miran is indeed the ideologue behind Trump’s trade policy based on tariffs, and one of the pillars of that ideology is the weakening of the dollar to favor exports. 

Note that the Dollar Index during 2025 has already fallen significantly, from about 110 points down to below 96 points. In the last two months, it has then risen above 98 points, but if the Fed follows Trump’s line aimed at weakening the dollar, in the future it could also fall much lower. 

The speculative bubble

The month of July ended with a BTC price candlestick very similar to that of August 2017, when compared with the trend of the Dollar Index. 

At the time, in September, there was a correction followed in October by a strong recovery of the bull run that led to the swelling of a mega-speculative bubble that burst only in the second half of December. 

Moreover, until today it has always been this way in the year following the US presidential elections, since Bitcoin has existed, except in 2009 when BTC was not yet tradable on any exchange, and it essentially had zero value.

Therefore, it is possible that this year as well, at the end of the year, another speculative bubble could inflate on the price of BTC, the magnitude of which could depend also and especially on the trend of the Dollar Index.

If August were to close with a candle similar to that of September 2017, one could theoretically expect a September 2025 in which the price of BTC resumes growing, with perhaps the swelling of another speculative bubble between October and November.