When Are the Next CPI and PPI Reports? How They Could Move AUD/USD

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When Are the Next CPI and PPI Reports? How They Could Move AUD/USD

Markets are closely watching the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases, as these inflation reports will provide critical clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. For AUD/USD traders, the data could trigger significant volatility, especially given the Australian dollar’s sensitivity to shifts in U.S. interest rate expectations.

CPI and PPI Release Dates and Expectations

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the January CPI report on February 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The PPI report, which measures wholesale inflation, will follow on February 13, 2026, at the same time. Economists surveyed by major financial news outlets expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with the core figure (excluding food and energy) also expected at 0.3%. The PPI is forecast to show a 0.2% monthly increase.

These releases come at a pivotal time. The Fed has signaled a cautious approach to rate cuts, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing the need for “greater confidence” that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target. A hotter-than-expected CPI or PPI reading could reinforce the “higher for longer” rate narrative, while cooler data may revive hopes for a rate cut as early as March.

How AUD/USD Reacts to U.S. Inflation Data

AUD/USD has been trading in a relatively tight range near the 0.6500 level in recent weeks, as markets weigh diverging monetary policy paths between the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Australian dollar is highly sensitive to risk sentiment and commodity prices, but U.S. interest rate expectations remain a dominant driver.

If CPI or PPI comes in above expectations, the U.S. dollar typically strengthens on expectations of tighter Fed policy, pushing AUD/USD lower. Conversely, a soft inflation print could weaken the dollar and support a bounce in the Aussie. Traders should also watch the market’s reaction to the core services inflation component, which the Fed has flagged as a key area of concern.

Key Levels to Watch

Technical analysts point to the 0.6400 area as strong support for AUD/USD, while resistance sits near 0.6600. A break above that level could open the door to a test of the 200-day moving average around 0.6700, depending on the inflation outcome and broader risk appetite.

Beyond the immediate volatility, the data will shape expectations for the Fed’s March 18-19 meeting. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in a roughly 40% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by March. A significant miss on inflation could shift those odds sharply.

Conclusion

The upcoming CPI and PPI releases are among the most important data points for the dollar this month. For AUD/USD traders, the reports offer both risk and opportunity. Staying informed on the release times and having a clear understanding of the potential market reactions is essential for navigating the volatility ahead.

FAQs

Q1: When exactly are the CPI and PPI reports released?
The January CPI report is due on February 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The PPI report follows on February 13, 2026, at the same time.

Q2: How does CPI data affect AUD/USD?
Higher-than-expected CPI tends to strengthen the U.S. dollar as it reduces the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, pushing AUD/USD lower. Lower CPI typically has the opposite effect.

Q3: What is the difference between CPI and PPI?
CPI measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services, while PPI measures the change in selling prices received by domestic producers. Both are key inflation indicators for the Fed.

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