- Over 100,000 Polymarket accounts have lost over $1,000 since January 2025, twice as much as the wallets’ gains.
- Retail traders lost over $1K because 5% of bot wallets took 75% volume while most entered late at worse prices.
- These losses could raise questions about the sustainability of prediction markets for casual users.
On April 29, 2026, Bloomberg reported that more than 100,000 Polymarket accounts had booked four-figure losses since January 2025, nearly double the number of wallets that recorded similar gains. A small group of automated bots and elite traders captured most of the profits, while the majority of users, including casual bettors, ended up underwater.
100,000+ Polymarket Accounts Lose Over $1000
According to sources, since January 2025, more than 100,000 Polymarket accounts have recorded losses of at least $1,000 each, nearly double the number of wallets posting comparable gains. Nearly two million wallets have been active on the platform since the start of 2025, with almost half recording gains or losses of under $10, suggesting many users were simply testing the platform.
Source: Bloomberg
Furthermore, the losses are not evenly spread as a separate academic study by researchers from the University of Toronto, HEC Montréal, and ESSEC Business School, which examined 2.4M users and $67B in total trading volume since 2022, found that 68.8% of all Polymarket users have lost money overall.
5% Bot Wallets Drive 75% Volume, Retail Traders Enter Late at Worse Prices
Notably, the imbalance stems from automated bots dominating market activity. Bloomberg’s analysis shows that roughly 5% of bot-like wallets generated 75% of total trading volume since January 2025. Within this high-frequency group, just 823 accounts each netted more than $100,000 in profit. Together, these bot-driven wallets pocketed a collective $131M.
The difference was timing and price. Retail traders consistently entered positions later, at worse prices, paying more or receiving less per contract than the bots that had already moved the market. According to the University of Toronto, HEC Montréal, and ESSEC Business School study, losing traders placed bets at extreme odds as the bottom 95% of users made 56% of their trades at prices below 10¢ or above 90¢, compared with just 28% for the top 0.1% of earners.
What’s the Impact on Polymarket and Prediction Markets?
As Polymarket and prediction markets expand amid high-stakes events, the retail loss data highlights ongoing challenges for casual users. The sector’s trading volume surged from $1.2B monthly in early 2025 to over $20B in January 2026, with Polymarket alone recording $10.57B in March 2026.
Meanwhile, industry forecasts project the total 2026 volume to reach between $240 and 325 billion. This rapid expansion, combined with concentrated profits, may push prediction platforms toward stronger risk disclosures, improved user education, and tighter regulatory scrutiny.
Therefore, the overall impact presents a stark reality check for the prediction market industry. While platforms continue to attract new users and promote event-based trading, the findings confirm that most gains flow to a small group of automated, high-frequency accounts. This dynamic challenges claims of democratized, peer-to-peer wagering and leaves the vast majority of retail participants as net funders of those profits.
Related: Kalshi Calls Out Polymarket Over “Misleading” Volume Claims
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Source: https://coinedition.com/100000-polymarket-accounts-lose-over-1000-since-2025/
