CLARITY Act Faces Tough Odds as Senate Timeline Tightens, Galaxy Digital Warns

Key Takeaways

• Prediction market Polymarket now shows just 38% probability of CLARITY Act passage in 2026, representing a 23-point decline
• Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno projects committee markup completion by late May
• Galaxy Digital analysts estimate 50-50 odds for legislative approval this year
• Banking industry seeks additional 60-day extension for stablecoin regulation feedback
• TD Cowen identifies five additional hurdles complicating the stablecoin yield controversy

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The United States Senate faces mounting challenges in establishing a clear path forward for the CLARITY Act, legislation designed to create a regulatory framework for digital asset markets that successfully cleared the House of Representatives in July 2025. Legislative momentum has ground to a halt amid conflicts between traditional banking institutions and cryptocurrency advocates, while the available time to enact the measure shrinks with each passing week.

Senator Thom Tillis has advised Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott to place the markup on the May calendar, acknowledging that negotiating teams require additional time to broker an agreement between financial institutions and digital asset firms regarding stablecoin yield provisions.

Cryptocurrency supporters are mounting resistance to further delays. Senator Cynthia Lummis alongside industry advocacy organization The Digital Chamber have called on the Senate Banking Committee to expedite the markup scheduling process.

On Tuesday, the American Bankers Association submitted correspondence to multiple regulatory bodies including the Treasury Department, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. The organization requested an additional 60-day window for providing commentary on regulations connected to the GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation, which received presidential signature in July 2025.

According to the ABA, regulatory guidance from these various agencies relies substantially on forthcoming Office of the Comptroller of the Currency rulemaking, rendering substantive feedback unfeasible until that framework reaches completion.

Betting markets have adjusted to reflect the legislative setbacks. Polymarket currently indicates a 38% likelihood of CLARITY Act passage during 2026, marking a 23-point decrease. Alternative platform Kalshi assigns 14% probability before July and 39% before August.

Meanwhile, the chances of President Trump affixing his signature to the legislation prior to 2027 have edged upward to 58%, climbing from 53% recorded earlier in the week.

Galaxy Digital’s Assessment

Digital asset investment firm Galaxy Digital calculates approximately even odds for legislative success within the current year. Alex Thorn, the company’s Head of Research, highlighted numerous outstanding issues awaiting resolution, encompassing stablecoin yield provisions, decentralized finance regulations, ethics requirements, and protections for software developers.

The legislation must still navigate Senate Banking Committee approval, secure 60 votes on the Senate floor, and undergo reconciliation with alternative versions from the Agriculture Committee and House of Representatives.

Time Constraints in the Senate

Galaxy Digital emphasized that the Senate’s operational calendar preceding the August break leaves minimal room for maneuvering. Senators maintain session throughout April, reconvene from May 11 through May 22, and subsequently have merely three weeks available in both June and July before entering a five-week August recess.

Thorn cautioned that markup delays extending beyond mid-May would significantly diminish the probability of enacting the bill during the current year.

TD Cowen identified five supplementary complications beyond the stablecoin yield debate: insufficient commissioners at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, regulatory questions surrounding prediction markets, examination of Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial, reports of Iran utilizing cryptocurrency for Strait of Hormuz passage fees triggering anti-money laundering scrutiny, and the pending Credit Card Competition Act.

Senator Lummis has issued a stark warning that legislative failure this year could postpone reconsideration until 2030.

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