Dell Stock Gets a Price Target Boost as AI Server Demand Shows No Signs of Slowing

TLDR

• Mizuho raised its price target on DELL to $215 from $180, keeping an Outperform rating.
• Dell’s AI server market share is forecast to grow from 19% in 2025 to 25% by 2029.
• Super Micro’s (SMCI) target was cut to $25 from $33 due to legal issues, not weak demand.
• Major cloud provider capex is estimated at $689 billion for 2026, up 64% year-over-year.
• AI server spending is projected to hit $862 billion by 2029, growing at a 44% CAGR from 2024.

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Mizuho Securities kicked off the week with a bullish call on Dell, lifting its price target to $215 from $180 while reaffirming an Outperform rating. The move reflects growing conviction that Dell is well-positioned to capture a bigger slice of the AI server market.

Dell Technologies Inc., DELL

The firm’s analyst Vijay Rakesh pointed to rising capital expenditure across the world’s biggest tech companies as a key driver. Cloud service provider capex is estimated at $689 billion for 2026, up 64% year-over-year, with 2027 consensus sitting at $811 billion.

Dell is seen as one of the biggest beneficiaries of that spending wave. Its AI server order pipeline sits at around $85 billion over five quarters, and Mizuho now estimates AI server orders of $53 billion in fiscal 2027 and $68 billion in fiscal 2028 — up from prior estimates of $50 billion and $61 billion.

The stock has climbed 39% this year and surged 148% over the past 12 months, trading at a P/E of 20 and a PEG of 0.53, which Mizuho views as attractive relative to the growth on offer.

AI Server Market Getting Bigger

Mizuho raised its 2029 AI server shipment forecast to 5.67 million units from a previous estimate of 3.67 million. Overall AI server spending is expected to reach $862 billion by 2029, up from around $140 billion in 2024 — a 44% compound annual growth rate.

Demand is not just coming from hyperscalers. Smaller cloud providers, enterprise buyers, and sovereign data centers are all expected to increase server deployments as agentic AI workloads grow. Rakesh wrote that “all key customers indicate continued willingness to stand up additional AI server clusters.”

Dell’s market share in AI servers is projected to rise from 19% in 2025 to 25% by 2029, gaining ground at the expense of Super Micro and Taiwanese manufacturers including Foxconn and Quanta Computer.

Evercore ISI separately raised its price target on Dell to $205, also maintaining an Outperform rating, citing resilience in CPU-driven server demand.

Super Micro Hit by Legal Trouble

Super Micro was a different story. Mizuho kept SMCI at Neutral and trimmed its price target to $25 from $33 — but the cut is tied to legal headwinds rather than any weakness in AI server fundamentals.

The U.S. government charged a Super Micro co-founder and two others with allegedly diverting servers to China in violation of export-control laws. Super Micro itself was not named as a defendant. SMCI stock is down 21% this year, trading around $23.31.

Rakesh noted that near-term legal uncertainty could push some orders toward Dell, but said Super Micro’s longer-term outlook remains intact given the broader strength in AI infrastructure spending.

SMCI rose 0.4% in premarket on Monday, while DELL gained 2.95%.

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