- Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation near $105K is a normal “mid-cycle pullback,” not a market top, according to Matt Crosby of Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
- The market has shown immense strength by absorbing billions in selling from long-term holders, a pressure absorbed by ETF and institutional demand.
- Models project a potential cycle top between $160K-$180K, with low volatility signaling a major price swing is imminent.
Bitcoin has spent much of late 2025 moving sideways, leaving traders frustrated and unsure of what comes next. After peaking above $120,000 earlier in the year, it has hovered around the $100,000 mark for weeks. But analysts say this quiet phase could be setting the stage for the next big move, and that move may be upward, not down.
Matt Crosby from Bitcoin Magazine Pro predicts Bitcoin is still in the middle of its bull market, not at the end of it. Despite short-term weakness, he says the current dip fits the pattern of a normal mid-cycle pullback that often comes before a larger rally.
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Market Still Looks Strong
Crosby points out that Bitcoin has held up surprisingly well considering the amount of selling from long-term holders. Billions of dollars’ worth of BTC has moved from wallets that had not sold in years, yet the price remains less than 20% below its all-time high. In previous cycles, such selling pressure would have caused a much deeper drop.
How Institutional Demand Absorbed LTH Selling
The reason, he says, is market maturation. Over one million bitcoins are now held by ETFs. This, combined with steady accumulation from large institutions, has created constant buy pressure. That pressure has absorbed what would have once been a devastating sell-off.
Based on current on-chain data and past cycle behavior, Crosby’s models show a potential top forming between $160,000 and $180,000. While this is not a guarantee, the probabilities still lean in favor of an extended bull run rather than a market collapse.
The main driver, he argues, remains simple economics: supply and demand. As long-term holders slow their selling and new capital flows into the market from institutions, funds, and retail investors returning, the limited Bitcoin supply could push prices much higher.
Models Project $180K Peak as Volatility Hits Lows
Volatility has fallen to its lowest level in over six months. This quiet period has historically come before major price swings. Bitcoin cycles appear to be lengthening, with each one taking longer to peak. That could mean the real breakout does not arrive until early 2026, though he does not rule out a strong rally before the year ends.
For now, he sees Bitcoin at a crossroads, consolidating before its next phase. If history repeats, this period of calm could soon give way to a powerful move that takes Bitcoin closer to $180,000, not $80,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading slightly above the $105k mark.
Related: U.S. Liquidity Surge Could Trigger Altcoin Season as TOTAL2 Holds Key Support
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Source: https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-mid-cycle-pullback-180k-target-etf-demand-lth-selling/
