Trading time: BTC hits $80,000, Arthur Hayes warns of 78,000 support level

1. Market observation

Keywords: Cocoro, ETH, BTC

Bitcoin fell to $80,000 this morning, and Ethereum also fell below $2,000 for a short time. The market sentiment indicator showed that the fear and greed index fell to 20, entering the extreme panic range. Bitcoin fell below the range after four months of sideways trading, but did not fully retest the previous high trading volume range. Observing the order book, it is found that the current largest pending orders are concentrated below 80K and above 95K, indicating that there is a lack of obvious trading opportunities in the current price range. At the same time, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that Bitcoin may retest the $78,000 support level, and if it falls below it, it may point to $75,000. In addition, the owner of DOGE prototype Shiba Inu KABOSU announced the adoption of a new dog over the weekend and launched the Cocoro token on the Base chain. The token economics announced by Own The Doge showed that 20% will be used for community airdrops.

On the regulatory side, David Sacks, the White House's director of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence, opposes the proposal to tax every cryptocurrency transaction. At the same time, the Trump administration is exploring major tax reforms, including abolishing federal income tax and replacing it with tariffs on imported goods. It is worth noting that David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, wrote that the U.S. Department of Justice may liquidate Bitcoin against the president's wishes, which may explain the recent price trend.

In this context, the views and dynamics of various parties have attracted attention. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, warned that the largest stock market crash may occur, and recommended that investors hold physical gold, silver and Bitcoin instead of related ETF products. Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, put forward a grand vision at the White House Digital Asset Summit, suggesting that the United States acquire 5%-25% of the total global Bitcoin supply by 2035, and it is expected that it may generate a value of 16 trillion to 81 trillion US dollars by 2045.

In this regard, Zeneca, founder of ZenAcademy, shared his investment experience in the last market cycle this morning. He had experienced a drawdown of eight-digit assets and emphasized that "selling too early" is usually wiser than "holding too long" because most assets will eventually return to zero. He reminded investors to consider reducing some positions when they see investment returns and be wary of overconfident voices on social media. Zeneca believes that Bitcoin is better than most other assets in the long run, and advises investors to avoid excessive immersion in the crypto market and stay connected to non-crypto fields to avoid being swayed by market sentiment.

2. Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 10)

• Bitcoin: $82,241.18 (-11.97% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $37.038 billion

• Ethereum: $2,061.23 (-38.11% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $22.789 billion

• Fear index: 20 (extreme fear)

• Average GAS: BTC 3 sat/vB, ETH 0.65 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 60.4%, ETH 9.2%

3. ETF flows (as of March 7 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$409.2 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$23.1 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

US President Trump met with US technology leaders, including the CEOs of HP, Intel, IBM, and Qualcomm. (March 11, 2:00)

US President Trump signed an executive order. (March 11, 3:00)

U.S. February unadjusted CPI annual rate (March 12, 20:30)

• Actual: None / Previous: 3% / Expected: 2.9%

U.S. February seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate (March 12, 20:30)

• Actual: None / Previous: 0.50% / Expected: 0.30%

Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending March 8 (10,000 people) (March 13, 20:30)

• Actual: None / Previous: 22.1 / Expected: None

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