What ending the Iran war would mean for Bitcoin’s price

President Trump is at it again.

Conflicting messages have been coming out of the White House since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. The latest: the commander-in-chief says the war will be over soon.

Crypto markets are up on the back of the news. Bitcoin was up by nearly 3% over the past 24 hours, trading for $68,897, on Wednesday, and Ethereum rose by close to 4% to touch $2,135.

And if Trump’s words hold true, that could prove a boon to cryptocurrencies, market watchers say.

“If tensions ease, short-term safe-haven flows will rotate back into traditional risk,” Norman Wooding, CEO and co-founder of SCRYPT, told DL News. 

Most markets have experienced more volatility since the Iran war but Bitcoin and Ethereum are still significantly below their record highs. Now, with a potential end in sight, what could happen to crypto markets?

Geopolitics playing a big role 

Chaos in the Middle East has been a drag on Bitcoin’s price since Israel first attacked Iran last year. Following attacks, Bitcoin has typically immediately dipped. When calm has followed, the coin’s price has risen.

This time has been slightly different: Bitcoin has experienced more volatility but has outpaced stocks in terms of gains — giving it a temporary safe-have status. 

“Geopolitics has been an important driver in recent months, which helps explain Bitcoin’s outperformance relative to equities, even though it still exhibits clear risk-on characteristics,” James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, told DL News. 

He added that resolution in the Middle East would lead to flows back into crypto markets — albeit in the short-term.

Still, the investor base for Bitcoin is changing, according to Wooding. Institutional investors such as pension funds and university superannuation funds are investing in cryptocurrencies. That means, resolution or not, money will still come into the space, Wooding said.

“Institutional allocators are building long-term exposure to a macro asset, and they do not trade on a three-week conflict timeline — a change in the geopolitical temperature does not change the investment thesis,” he said.

Keep an eye on oil 

Analysts told DL News that oil prices are key: when energy becomes more expensive, central banks tend to postpone rate cuts, restricting the liquidity for crypto markets.

Oil prices have shot up since the start of the war but since Wednesday, have dropped as crypto and stocks rallied.

“If the conflict were to de-escalate, the immediate effect would likely come through lower oil prices and reduced inflation pressure, increasing the probability of easier monetary policy, which tends to support Bitcoin,” added Butterfill.

Now, all eyes will be on what Trump says when he addresses the nation Wednesday evening.

Mathew Di Salvo is a news correspondent with DL News. Got a tip? Email at [e-mail].