CryptoQuant Warning: Bitcoin Faces Hidden Sell Pressure at $70K

CryptoQuant warns 92% of short-term Bitcoin holders are at a loss, creating sell pressure as BTC struggles to break past $72K resistance

Bitcoin is flashing warning signs, according to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. 

The leading cryptocurrency hovers around $70,000. 

Yet beneath the surface, the market structure looks increasingly fragile. 

Data shows most recent buyers are sitting at a loss. That dynamic is creating a layer of selling pressure on every price bounce.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Mostly Underwater

CryptoQuant highlighted a striking breakdown of short-term holder (STH) positions. This group currently holds roughly 5.7 million BTC. 

Of that, only about 8% are in profit. The remaining 92% are sitting at a loss.

That imbalance matters. When holders are underwater, they tend to sell into any rally rather than hold for higher prices. 

Each bounce becomes a relief exit, not a conviction buy. CryptoQuant described this dynamic as a “massive supply overhang” weighing on the market.

The STH realized price sits above the current spot price. 

That means the average recent buyer paid more than what Bitcoin trades for today. Until price reclaims that level, the bounce-and-sell pattern is likely to continue.

Related reading: CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju Sees Bitcoin Lows Sparking TradFi Shift

Strategy’s $75.6K Cost Basis Meets Key Resistance

CryptoQuant also pointed to another critical price level: the realized price of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings. 

The firm holds approximately 762,000 BTC, with an average cost basis of around $75,600.

That figure lines up almost exactly with the level where Bitcoin’s recent rally stalled. The market sold off right at that zone. 

CryptoQuant noted the rejection there was not coincidental. Large holders at a loss near a specific price level can create natural resistance. 

Sellers looking to break even push back against buyers trying to push higher.

This adds a second layer of overhead resistance above current prices. First, short-term holders are selling bounces. 

Second, a major institutional holder’s cost basis sits squarely in the rejection zone. Both factors are working against a clean breakout.

The $54K Realized Price and What History Suggests

Beyond short-term dynamics, CryptoQuant flagged the broader market realized price of approximately $54,000. 

This figure represents the average cost basis across all Bitcoin holders.

Historically, bear markets have seen Bitcoin revisit or trade below this level for extended periods. The $54K zone has acted as a gravitational floor in past cycles. 

CryptoQuant suggested that the current price sitting above it does not guarantee safety. In prior downturns, price returned to that range before finding a stable bottom.

That context frames the current situation carefully. 

Bitcoin is trading above its long-term realized price, but resistance sits above and weak holders dominate the near-term supply. The overall picture, as CryptoQuant framed it, is one of fragile market structure rather than bullish momentum.

Market analyst IT Tech added a technical layer to the conversation on X. According to the analyst, Bitcoin tagged $72,000 twice and failed both times. 

IT Tech noted that the double rejection at that level “is distribution until proven otherwise.” The analyst flagged $70,000 to $70,500 as the next key support zone, with $68,900 as the prior low and a full reset level if longs get cleared.

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