Treasury Spike, Inflation Risk, Iran War Contagion Pin Bitcoin Price

Key takeaways:

• Investors dumped gold and bonds for cash as war-driven oil spikes and inflation forced a defensive market stance.

• Rising yields and a 20% rate hike chance signal a tight outlook, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable amid soaring US debt.

Bitcoin (BTC) retested the $67,500 support level on Monday, a move that coincided with gold prices suffering their sharpest correction in over 50 years. Fears of a prolonged war involving Iran and the inflationary impact of oil prices holding above $85 pushed investors to cut risk.

US 5-year Treasury yields (left) vs. Gold/USD (right). Source: TradingView

US Treasuries also faced a sell-off during this period, suggesting that traders aggressively built cash positions. Yields on the US 5-year Treasury jumped to 4.10%, marking a nine-month high as traders demanded better returns. With the S&P 500 hitting its lowest point in over six months on Monday, evidence suggested a broad rush to liquidity.

Cash is king amid economic uncertainty, while Bitcoin risks further downside

Investors appeared to be raising cash either to cover recent losses or to brace for further price drops across risk markets.

Bitcoin/USD (left) vs. S&P 500 futures (right). Source: TradingView

The ongoing war in Iran pushed oil prices past $90, creating inflationary pressure. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US planned to deploy roughly 3,000 troops to the Middle East to counter Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Part of the decline in gold prices was likely linked to fading expectations for US monetary policy easing in the near term.

Interest rate target probabilities for the July FOMC meeting. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Bond market futures showed that the implied probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiking interest rates by July surged to 20.5%, up from 0% just one week prior. Investors anticipated a cooling job market as high interest rates continued to reduce corporate expansion incentives.

Tech stocks fall, inflation hurts consumers

US legislators debated an additional $200 billion in funding to support the war in Iran, according to The Washington Post. Kevin Hassett, director of the US National Economic Council, stated that $12 billion had already been spent. Lawmakers did not authorize the war, and Congress showed growing unease with the military strategy, according to AP.

Meanwhile, the US national debt soared past $39 trillion, which further pushed consumers toward a cost-of-living crisis. Fear of excessive speculative investment in the artificial intelligence sector emerged after Reuters reported that ChatGPT maker OpenAI offered private-equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5% while the company remained largely unprofitable.

Tech stocks performance. Source: TradingView

Some of the world’s largest tech companies faced losses of 10% or more over the past six weeks, including Google (GOOG US), Meta (META US), and IBM (IBM US). Thus, regardless of the sharp correction in gold prices, traders increasingly feared recession risks or a surge in inflation above the 4% fixed income returns.

Related: Bitcoin holders shift from panic to cash-buffer discipline as volatility deepens

The combination of declining stock prices and persistent inflationary pressure explained why investors aggressively sought the safety of cash positions.

Regardless of favorable Bitcoin onchain metrics, broader macroeconomic conditions remained unfavorable for sustainable bullish momentum. The decline in gold prices while investors offloaded US Treasuries served as a sign of risk aversion. The odds of a $66,000 retest remain a serious threat, at least until inflation and war expenses hold US monetary policy tight for a longer period.

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