Bitcoin Price May Have Found a Trough, Says Bernstein

TLDR

• Bernstein said Bitcoin may have reached its lowest point in the current correction phase.
• The firm maintained its $150,000 Bitcoin price target for the end of the year.
• Bitcoin traded near $70,290 after reclaiming the $70,000 level earlier this week.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $167.23 million in net inflows on Monday.
• Strategy increased its holdings to 762,099 BTC after a $76.6 million purchase.

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Bernstein said Bitcoin may have reached its lowest level in the current correction and could rebound toward higher prices. The firm kept its $150,000 year-end target despite recent volatility. Senior analyst Gautam Chhugani shared the outlook in a client note on Tuesday.

Bitcoin Price Outlook Points to $150,000 Target

Chhugani stated that Bitcoin has “found its trough” and now points higher. He said the recent low near $60,130 on February 6 likely marked the bottom. He added that the correction measured about 52% from the prior peak. He said this decline ranks among the shallowest historical drawdowns after all-time highs.

Bitcoin trades near $70,290 and slipped over 1% in the past 24 hours. However, it reclaimed $70,000 and touched $71,800 on Monday. Reports said President Donald Trump ordered a five-day ceasefire in attacks on Iran. Chhugani maintained the $150,000 target, which implies about 113.4% upside from current levels.

Bernstein based its forecast on continued institutional demand and steady ETF inflows. The firm cited fresh capital entering U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs this month. According to SosoValue, funds posted a $167.23 million net inflow on Monday. ETF products have attracted $1.60 billion since the start of March.

Hostplus, an Australian pension fund, plans to offer clients exposure to Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley also prepares to launch a U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF. These moves reflect growing corporate participation in the market. Bernstein said this demand could support higher prices in coming months.

Strategy and Diverging Market Forecasts

Bernstein also highlighted Strategy as a leveraged play on Bitcoin. The company bought $76.6 million worth of Bitcoin last week. Strategy now holds 762,099 BTC valued at nearly $53.5 billion. The stash represents about 3.6% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Chhugani described Strategy as a “high-beta Bitcoin play” backed by a strong balance sheet. He set a $450 price target for MSTR shares. The stock has fallen about 50% from its all-time high. He expects the shares to recover alongside Bitcoin.

Other analysts have issued different projections for the Bitcoin price. Chartist Ali Martinez said Bitcoin could fall to $41,500 by mid-October 2026. He expects an accumulation phase after that level. Standard Chartered forecast a drop to $50,000 before any sustained recovery.

The bank also revised its 2026 forecast from $150,000 to $100,000. It cited weaker economic conditions and softer demand trends. Bernstein, however, kept its year-end projection unchanged. Bitcoin last traded around $70,290 at the time of reporting.

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