Bernstein, the research and brokerage unit of AllianceBernstein, believes Bitcoin has found its cycle low and reiterates a $150,000 year-end target, implying more than double the upside from current levels.
The call, issued in a note led by analyst Gautam Chhugani this week, comes after a drawdown that shaved half of Bitcoin’s value from its October 2025 record.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $70,000 at the time of the report, having recovered from lows around $62,500 reached in late February. The token peaked at $126,279 last October, meaning the subsequent slide of roughly 50% ranks among the sharpest corrections in Bitcoin’s post-institutionalization era.
Why Bernstein thinks the bottom is in
That framing hinges on what didn’t happen during the downturn. Prior bear markets were typically punctuated by exchange collapses, lending-platform insolvencies, or cascading corporate failures.
The 2026 correction, driven largely by geopolitical anxiety after US-Israeli military strikes on Iran beginning in late February, produced heavy liquidations among leveraged traders and profit-taking by long-term holders, but no systemic breakdowns.
Flows of ETFs held steady
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in early 2024, have absorbed over $56 billion in cumulative net inflows.
Despite a volatile start to the year, these products have shown significant resilience, recording four consecutive weeks of net inflows totaling over $2 billion in March 2026.
Combined assets for the US spot complex now sit at approximately $90 billion, representing roughly 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total market cap.
Corporate accumulation
Public companies collectively hold more than one million Bitcoin, about 5.6% of the token’s fixed 21-million-unit supply.
The most prominent accumulator is Strategy, the enterprise-software-company-turned-Bitcoin-treasury-vehicle formerly known as MicroStrategy, which holds 762,099 coins.
Bernstein maintained an outperform rating on Strategy shares with a $450 price target, implying upside of more than 220% from the stock’s recent level of $138.
One notable fundraising instrument is STRC, Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, whose trading volumes climbed 65% over the prior three months, and its perpetual structure lets the company raise long-term capital without the equity dilution that comes with common-stock issuance.
Bitcoin versus gold
Bitcoin has outperformed gold by roughly 25% since hostilities intensified at the end of February, a comparison Bernstein cited to argue the asset functions as a portable, censorship-resistant store of value during geopolitical stress.
According to Glassnode data, over 60% of the circulating supply is now held by long-term participants, which means the pool of coins susceptible to forced selling during drawdowns has shrunk compared with earlier cycles.
Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-bottom-call-bernstein-target/
