In brief
- Bittensor’s TAO led an AI altcoin surge as geopolitical tensions briefly eased following Trump’s announcement of a pause in planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure.
- Iran subsequently denied that talks had taken place, triggering a whipsaw in prices and liquidating roughly $670 million in leveraged crypto positions over 24 hours.
- Conflicting Iran signals fuel risk aversion, testing Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative, Decrypt was told.
AI-focused altcoins led a market-wide rally Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would “postpone” planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, triggering a cascade of short liquidations.
Bittensor’s TAO token jumped 10.2%, while Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) and Render (RENDER) gained 6.2% and 4.8%, respectively, over 24 hours. Aptos (APT), LayerZero (ZRO), and World Liberty Financial (WLFI) also posted significant moves as the total crypto market cap topped $2.5 trillion, according to CoinGecko data.
The immediate catalyst was President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause on strikes against Iran’s power plants, along with claims of “productive conversations” between the U.S. and Iran. Trump’s statement sent oil prices tumbling over 13%, sparking a relief rally across risk assets.
However, Iran’s foreign ministry said there was “no dialogue” between Tehran and Washington, a statement subsequently echoed by Iran parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The remarks sparked a volatile environment that sent oil back over $100 a barrel and led to over $670 million in liquidations across the crypto market over a 24 hour period. Short positions accounted for $370 million—more than half of the total.
That short squeeze propagated “hardest into higher-beta names where positioning was already most compressed,” Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan, told Decrypt.
He also pointed to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s GTC conference last week as a second catalyst. The convergence of the two events added tailwinds to the AI sector, he said.
Despite the sharp gains, a broad-based altcoin rally remains unlikely, Decrypt previously reported. Instead, any “alt season” is expected to mature and be limited to a narrow sector of narrative- and fundamental-driven tokens.
Looking ahead
“Conflicting statements around the Iran war are increasing uncertainty, which fuels risk aversion,” Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at cryptocurrency exchange CEX.IO, told Decrypt. “That uncertainty is keeping oil prices elevated and lowering expectations for rate cuts.”
For now, with both oil prices and Treasury yields rising, inflation remains a key concern, he said. That dynamic is “not that bad for Bitcoin due to its store-of-value narrative.”
Still, Bitcoin continues to hold steady around $71,000 and is up 0.3% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
Otychenko warned that the bigger risk would be if oil prices and Treasury yields start moving in different directions. “That would create a more complex macro backdrop that could test Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative as it would put significant pressure on most assets except bonds and the U.S. dollar.”
Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, reflected the growing uncertainty, assigning only a 44% chance to a spring crypto rally.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/362170/bittensor-leads-ai-altcoin-surge-as-short-squeeze-conflicting-iran-talks-claims-fuel-volatility
