Evercore Names Amazon (AMZN) Stock Its #1 Large-Cap Pick for 2026

Key Takeaways

• Evercore ISI maintains Outperform rating on Amazon (AMZN) with $285 price target intact
• AWS revenue forecasted to reach $163B in 2026 (27% year-over-year increase) and $214B in 2027 (31% expansion)
• Evercore designates Amazon as its top large-cap investment recommendation for 2026, noting stock trades at 3-year P/E trough
• Firm increases total revenue and operating income projections by 2–3%, positioning estimates 4–5% above consensus
• Capital expenditures anticipated to approach ~$250B by 2027, potentially resulting in ~$10B annual free cash flow deficits

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Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney reaffirmed his Outperform stance on Amazon.com (AMZN) this Wednesday, maintaining his $285 price objective. With shares currently hovering around $208.76, this target represents approximately 37% potential upside.

Amazon.com, Inc., AMZN

Mahaney designated Amazon as his “#1 large-cap long idea for 2026,” pointing to attractive valuation levels, robust cloud computing expansion, and emerging business ventures as primary catalysts supporting his bullish outlook.

This recommendation follows Evercore’s updated assessment of Amazon Web Services, the e-commerce giant’s cloud computing arm. The firm now anticipates AWS will generate $163 billion in revenue during 2026, representing a 27% year-over-year increase, before accelerating to $214 billion in 2027 with 31% growth.

Regarding profitability metrics, Evercore forecasts AWS operating margins will reach 34% in 2026, with a modest contraction to 32% in 2027. These figures underscore the ongoing operational efficiency of the cloud platform.

Evercore has also upgraded its comprehensive Amazon financial projections. The firm’s revenue and operating income estimates increased by 2–3%, positioning them 4–5% higher than prevailing Street consensus forecasts. This represents a notable divergence from mainstream analyst expectations.

Investment Case and Valuation Opportunity

A cornerstone of Mahaney’s investment thesis centers on Amazon’s current valuation discount—particularly relative to its own historical trading multiples. Shares are trading near a three-year low on a price-to-earnings basis, with the current P/E ratio at 29.11 and a PEG ratio of 0.98. This PEG metric suggests the market may be undervaluing the company’s anticipated growth trajectory.

Evercore highlighted emerging company programs, such as Project Leo and Perishable Checkout, as potential value catalysts that could deliver more substantial contributions throughout 2026.

BofA Securities maintains a Buy recommendation on the shares with a $275 target, following Amazon’s recent introduction of 1-hour and 3-hour delivery services across numerous U.S. metropolitan areas.

Capital Spending Represents Key Risk Factor

The primary concern centers on Amazon’s aggressive investment strategy. Evercore anticipates capital expenditures will escalate to approximately $250 billion by 2027, representing a significant financial commitment. The firm projects roughly $10 billion in free cash flow losses for both 2026 and 2027 stemming from this investment cycle.

Capex intensity—calculated as capital expenditures relative to total revenue—is expected to reach its peak in 2026, though Evercore acknowledged this elevated spending could persist through 2027. This investment surge will meaningfully constrain near-term cash generation capacity.

Neverthstanding these headwinds, Mahaney contends this risk factor is already reflected in current share prices, with the overall risk-reward profile remaining attractive.

On the corporate finance front, Amazon recently secured $36.9 billion through a multi-tranche debt issuance, while also completing a €14.47 billion euro-denominated bond offering. Separately, Jeff Bezos is reportedly pursuing $100 billion in capital for a new investment vehicle focused on manufacturing enterprises and AI-powered automation technologies.

According to the latest analyst consensus data, 40 of 43 analysts covering AMZN maintain Buy ratings, with the average price target established at $280.00 per share.

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