Ethereum has been quiet lately – too quiet for most retail investors who wrote it off after a brutal 63% decline from its late 2024 highs.
Key Takeaways
- Ethereum Spot ETFs have recorded 5 consecutive days of net positive inflows for the first time since January
- ETH is trading around $2,308, attempting to break out of a months-long bearish descending channel
- Options flow and gamma hedging – not fundamentals – appear to be the primary driver of recent price action
- RSI at 62.85 and a rising MACD signal growing bullish momentum, though the 100-day SMA at $2,594 remains a key hurdle
But underneath the surface, something has been shifting – and the ETF flow data is the first hard evidence worth paying attention to.
Spot Ethereum ETFs have now recorded five straight days of net positive inflows – the first such streak since January. That’s not a headline that moves markets on its own, but context matters here. The last time ETF inflows sustained a similar pattern, ETH was trading around $2,500 before climbing past $4,000. Whether that comparison holds any weight this time around is debatable, but institutional money returning – even modestly – after months of net outflows is not something to dismiss outright.
The total ETF net inflow chart tells the fuller story: from mid-2024 through late 2025, inflows were volatile and largely dominated by sharp outflows during the extended price decline. The recent green cluster in early March 2026, while small relative to the peaks seen around April-July 2025, represents a visible shift in direction. ETH has simultaneously stabilized around the $2,200 – $2,300 range after briefly dipping toward $1,800 in early February – its lowest point in well over a year.
Market Structure: A Bear Channel Breaking Down
According to Markus Thielen from 10x Research, what’s happening with Ethereum is primarily a market structure story, not a fundamental one. In his analysis, Thielen identifies a well-defined descending channel that ETH has been trading within since September 2025 – with the upper boundary currently sitting just above current price levels near $2,200 – $2,300.
Thielen’s view is that the catalyst behind the current move is less about any sudden improvement in Ethereum’s fundamentals and more about options flows and gamma hedging dynamics. In plain terms: as ETH price moved higher, market makers who had sold call options were forced to buy spot ETH to hedge their exposure, mechanically amplifying the move upward. This kind of derivatives-driven price action is increasingly common in crypto markets that have matured enough to develop significant options open interest.
What this means practically is that the move carries a degree of fragility. It’s not built on a surge in developer activity or a new narrative around Ethereum’s use case – it’s built on positioning. That can unwind just as quickly as it builds.
That said, Thielen notes that Ethereum is increasingly behaving like a traditional financial asset, where market structure, derivatives positioning, and liquidity flows matter more than on-chain metrics or protocol upgrades in the short term. The asset is no longer just following crypto-native narratives – it’s trading on its own mechanics, somewhat decoupled from the standard risk-on/risk-off behavior seen in equities.
Technical Picture: Momentum Is There, Resistance Is Too
Looking at the daily chart, the technical setup reflects exactly the tension Thielen describes — a market at an inflection point, not a confirmed breakout.
Price is currently sitting at $2,308, above the 50-day SMA of $2,118, which has recently flipped from resistance to support — a constructive sign. However, the 100-day SMA at $2,594 looms significantly overhead and represents the first major test for any sustained recovery. ETH would need to close above that level convincingly before the technical picture shifts from “recovery attempt” to “trend reversal.”
The RSI at 62.85 is notable. It’s pushing into territory that preceded previous rallies but hasn’t yet reached overbought conditions – leaving room for continued upside without an immediate red flag. The signal line sits at 51.42, confirming that momentum has genuinely turned bullish on a daily timeframe.
The MACD reinforces this read. The MACD line (47.81) has crossed above the signal line (32.00) and both are rising, with the histogram turning increasingly positive over the past several sessions. The last time a similar MACD crossover occurred — around May 2025 – it preceded a multi-week rally. The histogram gap is still negative at -15.82, meaning the full bullish crossover hasn’t printed yet, but the trajectory is clear.
Volume has been modest but consistent, which is actually a healthier sign than a spike-and-fade pattern.
What to Expect
The setup for Ethereum in the near term hinges on two things: whether ETF inflows continue beyond this five-day streak, and whether price can hold above the 50-day SMA while making a credible attempt at the $2,594 level.
If inflows persist and options market dynamics continue to favor upward gamma exposure, a grind toward $2,600 – $2,800 over the coming weeks is plausible. That range coincides with the upper boundary of Thielen’s descending channel – a level that, if broken and held, would technically end the bear market structure that has defined ETH since late 2024.
The risk is equally clear. The move so far is derivatives-driven, not demand-driven. A single day of heavy ETF outflows, or a macro shock that pushes risk assets lower broadly, could reverse the positioning unwind and send ETH back toward $2,000 or below. The support shelf built between $1,837 and $2,000 would then become the line in the sand.
For now, the evidence points to a cautious but real shift in momentum. Ethereum isn’t out of the woods – but for the first time in months, it’s at least facing the exit.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
AuthorRelated stories
Next article
Source: https://coindoo.com/ethereum-quietly-builds-steam-as-etf-inflows-return-and-bears-lose-their-grip/
