Polymarket Bettors Threaten Israeli Journalist Over $17M Iran Strike Prediction Market

TLDR

• An Israeli journalist received death threats from Polymarket bettors trying to change his reporting on an Iranian missile strike
• Over $17 million was wagered on a Polymarket contract about whether Iran struck Israel on March 10
• The journalist, Emanuel Fabian, filed a police report and refused to alter his story
• Polymarket banned the accounts involved and shared their details with authorities
• US lawmakers have introduced the “Death Bets Act” to ban prediction market contracts tied to war and assassinations

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An Israeli military journalist was threatened by bettors on the prediction market platform Polymarket after he reported on an Iranian missile strike near Beit Shemesh on March 10, 2026.

Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for The Times of Israel, wrote that an Iranian missile hit an open area near the city. That report became the center of a dispute over a $17 million Polymarket bet on whether Iran had struck Israel that day.

The contract rules said the market would resolve “yes” if Iran launched a missile, drone, or airstrike on Israeli soil. But a clause said intercepted projectiles would not count toward a “yes” result.

Bettors who had wagered “no” began contacting Fabian to pressure him into changing his article to say the missile had been intercepted rather than hitting the ground.

Fabian said he received emails, phone calls, and messages across multiple platforms asking him to change his report.

Haim also shared personal details about Fabian’s family and neighborhood.

Fabian reported the threats to police, who opened an investigation.

A colleague at another outlet also told Fabian that someone had approached them and offered a share of the winnings in exchange for getting Fabian to change his story.

Fabian declined all requests and said his reporting was based on statements from Israeli rescue services and military sources.

Polymarket Bans Accounts, Authorities Notified

Polymarket released a statement on X calling the behavior “a violation of our Terms of Service” and said it had banned all accounts involved. The company said it would share user information with relevant authorities.

The Israeli Defense Forces later confirmed that the missile that hit outside Beit Shemesh was not intercepted, supporting Fabian’s original report.

US Lawmakers Move to Restrict War-Linked Prediction Markets

The episode has added fuel to an ongoing debate in Washington about the role of prediction markets tied to war and geopolitical events.

Senator Adam Schiff and Representative Mike Levin recently introduced the “Death Bets Act,” which would ban prediction market contracts linked to war, assassinations, or fatalities.

Senator Chris Murphy has separately proposed banning contracts tied to government military actions after blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found wallets that made roughly $1 million betting on US strikes against Iran shortly before they happened.

Polymarket also recently removed a market allowing bets on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year after criticism online.

Despite the controversy, trading volumes continue to grow. Kalshi recorded around $10.4 billion in trading volume in February 2026. Polymarket logged roughly $7.9 billion in the same month.

The two platforms together are on pace to reach a seventh consecutive monthly high of around $20 billion in combined trading volume.

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