MyStonks Research Institute: US non-farm payroll data significantly revised downward, CPI and Fed decision become the focus

PANews reported on September 9th that MyStonks Research Institute stated that the US government indicated on Tuesday that actual US job creation in the 12 months ending in March of this year may be 911,000 fewer than previously estimated. This revision suggests that job growth was already weakening before Trump imposed tariffs on imported goods. Economists had previously projected that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could lower its employment forecast for April 2024 to March 2025 by 400,000 to 1 million jobs. The employment forecast for April 2023 to March 2024 had already been revised down by 598,000 jobs. This benchmark revision follows last Friday's report that job growth nearly stagnated in August and that June saw its first job loss in four and a half years.

MyStonks Research Institute believes that the labor market is not only impacted by trade policy uncertainty but also by the White House's tightening immigration policies, which is limiting labor supply. Furthermore, the accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence and automation by businesses has dampened demand for labor. Most economists believe that the downward revision to employment data will have a limited impact on monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to resume interest rate cuts in the early hours of Thursday, September 19th, Beijing time, after pausing its easing cycle in January due to tariff uncertainty.

MyStonks Research Institute will continue to pay attention to the CPI data released on September 11 to further analyze the Federal Reserve's policy path.