Bitcoin Has a ‘Logical’ Bounce Zone at $100,000

Key points:

• Bitcoin sees a modest rebound into the weekly candle close, but traders see key resistance overhead.

• BTC price action risks a much deeper drop if bulls fail to reclaim that resistance zone.

• Fibonacci analysis hints that such a drop may not pass more than 10%.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned above $111,000 into Sunday’s weekly close as analysis saw “promising” recovery signs.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price “logical” bounce zone near $100,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining around 1% on the day to hit local highs of $111,369.

The pair’s latest dip, which followed US macroeconomic data, saw bulls preserve $110,000 support.

“This is actually promising on $BTC,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe responded on X.

BTC/USDT one-day chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Market participants continued to hold diverging views over short-term BTC price action. Popular trader Cipher X suggested that $112,000 could spark new lows should bulls fail to reclaim it next.

“We either flip $113,000 and pump to new highs, or if we reject here we drop to $100,000,” fellow trader Crypto Tony added on the day, adopting a more categorical perspective based on the weekly chart.

Trader TurboBullCapital referenced the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $115,035 and $101,760, respectively, as important levels to watch going forward.

“Lose the $107k area & the downside target becomes the $101k level which also happens to coincide with the MA200,” part of an X post concluded. 

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50, 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin’s “worst case scenario” coincides with $100,000

As Cointelegraph reported, one theory on longer timeframes involves market makers on exchange order books.

Related: Bitcoin bear market due in October with $50K bottom target: Analysis

Short sellers and bears, it suggests, could be the victims of manipulation prior to a giant short squeeze event taking the market to new all-time highs. This would echo price action in late 2024.

In the meantime, Fibonacci retracement levels imply a maximum drop of 10%, again based on historical behavior since the end of last year.

“$BTC usually bottoms at 0.382 Fibonacci level. This happened in Q3 2024, Q2 2025 and will probably happen again,” popular trader ZYN observed.

BTC/USDT one-week chart. Source: ZYN/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-taps-111-3k-forecast-10-dip-worst-case-scenario?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound