A cluster of on-chain and macro indicators is raising eyebrows across crypto markets this week, with analysts pointing to data that historically preceded major Bitcoin recoveries. The signals are notable. They are not, however, a green light.
Key Takeways
- Bitcoin’s 1-month RSI has reached levels last seen during the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms
- Copper vs. Gold ratio is in its longest bear market since Bitcoin’s inception — a reversal could signal a strengthening business cycle
- Cycle lows are trending higher over time, suggesting the severity of Bitcoin crashes is gradually diminishing
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe flagged that Bitcoin’s 1-month RSI has now reached the same depressed levels recorded during the bear market floors of 2018 and 2022 — both of which were followed by substantial recoveries. On its own, an oversold RSI on the monthly timeframe carries more weight than the same reading on a daily or weekly chart.
Monthly candles filter out the noise. When that indicator compresses to levels seen at confirmed cycle bottoms, it tells you something about where longer-term sellers may be exhausted — not that buying is risk-free, but that the risk-reward window is narrowing in favor of patient accumulation.
Why Copper vs. Gold May Be the Most Important Chart Nobody Is Talking About
Van de Poppe also highlighted the Copper-to-Gold ratio, a widely watched macro proxy for global growth appetite, which has been in a sustained downtrend for longer than at any prior point in Bitcoin’s history. Copper prices tend to rise when industrial demand is strong — factories running, infrastructure being built, economies expanding. Gold moves in the opposite direction, climbing when fear dominates and capital seeks safety. A falling Copper-Gold ratio, sustained over years, reflects a world that has been leaning defensive. The fact that this ratio is now at historic lows relative to Bitcoin’s existence is significant context. It means Bitcoin has never had to navigate a macro backdrop quite this cautious for quite this long.
A reversal in that ratio would carry real implications. It would likely signal that global growth expectations are recovering — that capital is rotating back into cyclical, risk-on assets. Bitcoin, which despite its unique properties tends to trade like a high-beta risk asset during macro inflection points, would stand to benefit from that shift. Van de Poppe’s argument isn’t that Bitcoin goes up because a chart looks pretty. It’s that a macro regime change — the kind that starts with copper outperforming gold — historically pulls the broader business cycle upward, and Bitcoin moves with it.
“The bottom is closer than we think,” van de Poppe wrotе.
On-Chain Data Tells a More Cautious Story
That view is partially supported by separate data from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., who pointed to the Bitcoin NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite — a blended metric combining two sentiment and valuation indicators. NUPL, or Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, measures whether the average holder is sitting on gains or losses. MVRV, the Market Value to Realized Value ratio, compares Bitcoin’s current market cap to the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation. Together, they provide a picture of how stretched — or how beaten down — market participants actually are. The composite currently reads 0.33. In past cycles, capitulation bottoms formed when the metric dropped to around -0.5.
That gap matters. A reading of 0.33 suggests the market is still in net profit territory in aggregate, which means there are still holders who could sell — and haven’t yet. In prior cycles, the deepest pain came when that number went deeply negative, reflecting widespread losses across the holder base and the kind of forced selling that marks a genuine floor. We are not there. What that means in practice is that while conditions are deteriorating, the market may not have fully wrung out the weak hands yet. Another leg down, or an extended period of sideways price action, remains a plausible outcome before a sustained recovery takes hold.
Is This Cycle Structurally Different?
Adler noted something structurally interesting: the lows of each successive cycle appear to be rising. Capitulation, while still possible, may not reach the extremes of prior downturns. This gradual upward drift in cycle floors likely reflects a maturing market — deeper liquidity, more institutional participation, broader holding across long-term wallets that simply aren’t moving regardless of price. If that structural shift is real, then waiting for -0.5 on the composite the way it hit in 2018 or early 2019 may mean waiting for a level that never arrives. The market could bottom at -0.2 or -0.3 and recover without ever reaching historical extremes. That’s both reassuring and tricky — it raises the risk of sitting in cash waiting for a capitulation signal that the market has structurally outgrown.
The Uncomfortable Middle Ground
What emerges from both analyses is a market sitting in uncomfortable middle ground. The macro backdrop is weak but potentially turning. On-chain metrics are deteriorating but haven’t reached historical extremes. Sentiment is depressed but not broken. Taken together, the picture is one of a late-stage consolidation rather than a clean bottom — the kind of environment where accumulation is defensible but conviction is hard to come by.
Whether that combination marks the early edge of a recovery — or simply the middle of a prolonged grind — remains an open question. History rhymes in crypto markets, but it rarely repeats on a schedule. The signals are aligning. The confirmation hasn’t arrived.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-price-update-bears-are-exhausted-bulls-arent-ready-and-the-market-is-stuck-in-between/
