Hormuz similarities to Bab al Mandab make for planning headache

If ever a scenario has been wargamed it is a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Naval planners have been considering their options here for at least 40 years.

Remember the period between 1980 and 1988 and the Tanker War, when American warships resorted to escorting reflagged Kuwaiti tankers through the narrow waterway? Subsequently, the US navy even developed a specialised class of warship to cope with the challenges of swarming attacks by fast attack boats in shallow waters.

So it was on Saturday that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait closed shortly after Donald Trump said that he would “annihilate” the Iranian navy.

Seventy-two hours later, Trump said: “They have no navy; it’s been knocked out.” The president was presumably including the sizeable covert fleet operated by the Guards in this assessment.

Iran has not historically favoured sea power – with the exception of the rule of Nader Shah and his sea captain John Elton.

But in the modern era the Islamic Republic broadcast footage of its fleet of mini submarines – the Gulf is not easy for submersibles to operate in – and what it claimed was the world’s fastest attack speedboat. The Haidar 110 could reach speeds of 110 knots per hour, we were told.

These vessels are likely no more. The headquarters of the Iranian fleet at Bandar Abbas have been destroyed. While a strike on the small port of Minab seems to have gone awry and struck a school, killing 170 girls and their teachers, according to the Iranian authorities.

So why hasn’t the strait been declared open? The answer is missiles and drones – Iran’s main strategic strengths. Iran obtained Chinese-origin Silkworm anti-ship cruise missiles back in the 1980s and has been in the market for more since then.

US planners must contend with the Yemeni Houthis’ success in closing the Bab al Mandab on the Red Sea. The Houthis, advised by Iran, have developed tactics of shoot, scoot and hide. In mountains.

Away from the coast, Hormozgan, the province that abuts the strait and of which Bandar Abbas is the capital, is mostly mountainous.

Further reading:

• In any Trump strike on Iran, Hormuz is the real prize
• Oil climbs further as Iran targets energy facilities
• Spiking energy prices could force Trump to end Iran conflict

Yet it is now clear, given the events of the past few days, that the US and its allies, including the Arab Gulf states, cannot allow the Islamic Republic to maintain its grip on the waters and skies of the strait.

Liquefied natural gas prices are coming under greater pressure than oil, massively affecting European states, and JPMorgan Chase has warned that Brent crude could reach $120 per barrel if disruption of oil flows is sustained.

In the US, as Mr Trump prepares for the midterm elections in November, gasoline at the pump may break the psychologically important – and electorally negative – $3 per gallon benchmark.

US and Israeli forces will be searching for the launchers of the Silkworms and other anti-ship missiles. But, as the Houthi imbroglio demonstrates, this is not easy.

One option is island seizure. Bandar Abbas is protected from the open sea by Qeshm island while the island of Hormuz – complete with its Portuguese fort and proverbial in early modern times for its wealth – is not far away. These play a significant part in Iranian control of the strait.

One is reminded of the Taiwanese-controlled Kinmen Islands, which are only a couple of kilometres off the shore of Fujian in communist China. That apparent anomaly has persisted for over 70 years.

The launch of US and Israeli pre-emptive attacks on the Islamic republic signal that we are living in different times. Qeshm, perhaps already housing anti-ship missiles, looks vulnerable.