Circle Internet (CRCL) Stock: Top Analyst Raises Price Target to $100 on Rate Outlook

TLDR

• Mizuho raised its Circle price target from $90 to $100 but kept a “neutral” rating
• The upgrade is driven by rising oil prices and reduced odds of Fed rate cuts in 2026
• CRCL stock climbed to $103.71 on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly four months
• Circle beat Q4 2025 EPS estimates ($0.43 vs $0.35 expected); USDC in circulation grew 72% year-over-year to $75.3 billion
• Mizuho flagged longer-term risks from stablecoin competition and potential margin compression as regulation brings new entrants

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The stablecoin issuer closed at $96.14 on March 2, up 15%, and reached $103.71 on Tuesday, its highest point in nearly four months. At the time of reporting it was trading around $102.

Circle Internet Group, CRCL

Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins raised their price target on CRCL to $100 from $90. They kept their rating at “neutral.”

The move came after escalating U.S.-Iran tensions triggered airstrikes over the weekend, sending crude oil prices sharply higher. WTI crude rose nearly 3% to $73.36 a barrel. Brent Crude added 3.23% to trade at $80.25.

Mizuho’s argument is straightforward: higher oil means higher inflation risk, which means the Fed is less likely to cut rates. That’s good for Circle.

Why Rates Matter So Much Here

Circle earns most of its revenue from interest on the reserves that back USDC. Those reserves sit largely in short-term U.S. Treasuries and cash. When rates stay elevated, that income holds up.

Mizuho noted that softer rate-cut expectations only nudge 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts up by about 1%. But the bigger effect is on valuation. The probability of no rate cut in 2026 roughly doubled in a single day, per CME’s FedWatch tool.

That shift gives Circle’s valuation multiple more room to expand, the analysts wrote.

Mizuho models USDC in circulation at around 123 billion in 2027, implying roughly $3.7 billion in reserve income and $922 million in EBITDA. The firm applies a 27x multiple — above the ~19x average for peers like Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, and Robinhood — to support its $100 target.

Strong Q4 Sets the Foundation

Circle’s Q4 2025 earnings gave investors plenty to work with before the oil story even started. The company posted EPS of $0.43, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $0.35. Quarterly revenue came in at $770 million.

USDC in circulation hit $75.3 billion at year-end, up 72% year-over-year. As of late January, Circle’s USDC reserve included $18.8 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, per a Deloitte audit.

The stock has surged 65% since that earnings release.

CRCL made its Wall Street debut on June 5 last year. It opened at $69, some 124% above its $31 IPO price. The IPO was 25 times oversubscribed.

Crypto Council for Innovation advisor Sean Lee said a sustained oil price above $120 per barrel could “ignite inflation fears,” which would further support the case for stablecoin adoption if traders seek dollar-pegged instruments over bank savings.

Despite the constructive near-term setup, Mizuho flagged longer-term concerns. As regulatory clarity increases, more players could enter the dollar-backed stablecoin market, which could compress margins over time.

USDC currently holds a 24.3% share of the total stablecoin market, with a market cap of $75.92 billion, per DeFiLlama.

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